Government cuts palay production forecast

MANILA, Philippines - Updated palay (unhusked or paddy rice) production forecast of the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) for the third quarter has been slightly adjusted downward following the effects of four typhoons that hit production areas from July to September this year.

The updated forecast indicates a 0.6 percent decline to 3.138 million metric tons or a calculated decline of 20,000 MT from the earlier July-round calculation forecast of 3.158 million MT.

Updated corn production forecast for the third quarter shows a 2.8 percent decline to 2.088 million MT from the previous July-round third quarter forecast of 2.148 million MT.

Based on the BAS’ updated figures, the destruction caused by typhoons Falcon, Juaning, Mina and Pedring have been factored into the new third quarter palay production forecast of 3.138 million MT.

Actual third quarter palay production is scheduled to be released by the BAS on Nov. 15.

The BAS will likewise announce on Nov. 15 its forecast palay production for the fourth quarter which will be used by the National Food Autnority (NFA) Council to determine how much rice the Philippines will need to import in 2012.

According to BAS Director Romeo Recide, the updated full year palay production for 2011 is 17.294 million MT.

In a briefing yesterday, the BAS said the fourth quarter production forecast would be more “badly affected” although they could still not quantify the possible reduction.

Based on latest estimates of damage to palay, the figure is now at one million metric tons. Other factors such as increased production from other sources could still affect the final numbers.