DOST: Entire Philippines could be under drought conditions in March 2027
MANILA, Philippines — All provinces in the country could be affected by drought and dry conditions in March 2027, according to the Department of Science and Technology (DOST).
In its October 2026 to March 2027 outlook, the state science agency indicated that drought could begin as early as October in some areas and persist until the last week of March 2027.
The dry conditions are expected to gradually spread across the country, with the entire Philippines projected to be affected by drought in March next year.
“By end of March, lahat ng probinsya (all provinces),” Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum said at a Palace press briefing on Monday, October 5.
Drought conditions refer to three consecutive months of way-below-normal rainfall, with rainfall levels more than 60% below the average.
As of September 30, seven provinces were already experiencing drought conditions: Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur and Catanduanes in Luzon; and Negros, Samar (western) and Siquijor in Visayas.
“Ito pong pinapakita natin ay meteorological drought. Ibig sabihin base lang ang kakulangan ng tubig sa ulan. Pero kung anong mangyayari sa ibabaw ay depende na kung paano natin titipirin ang tubig na available sa ating mga dams at sa lupa,” Solidum said.
(“What we are showing is meteorological drought. That means the shortage of water is based on rainfall. But what happens in the surface is dependent on how we conserve water available in our dams and on our land.”)
Monthly rainfall forecast
Meanwhile, DOST-Pagasa also presented monthly rainfall forecasts across the country from October this year until March 2027.
For October, below-normal rainfall is expected across Luzon, Visayas and the Caraga region, while near-normal rainfall is forecast in northern Luzon and southern Mindanao.
Way-below-normal to below-normal rainfall conditions are expected to start in November. However, some areas in Mindanao may still experience near-normal rainfall.
From December until March next year, way-below-normal rainfall conditions are expected across the country.
“Ang epekto ng El Niño ay nagsimula na. Nag-emerge noong August hanggang Oktubre, at ito ay tinatayang magpapatuloy from December to February,” Solidum explained.
("The effects of El Niño have already begun. It emerged from August through October, and it is expected to continue from December to February")
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