Extremely early presidential survey places Sara Duterte as top contender for 2028

Xave Gregorio - Philstar.com
Extremely early presidential survey places Sara Duterte as top contender for 2028
Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte applauds during a change of command ceremony at Camp Aguinaldo in Quezon City, suburban Manila on August 8, 2022. Lieutenant General Bacarro is replacing outgoing military chief General Andres Centino, and will be the first military chief to serve a three-year term under a newly signed law.
AFP / Ezra Acayan / Pool

MANILA, Philippines — A commissioned Social Weather Stations survey done five years before the next presidential elections in 2028 pinned Vice President Sara Duterte as the “best leader to succeed” President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., although a larger 41% did not answer.

The poll showed that 28% of the 1,200 adults surveyed said Duterte is the best leader to succeed Marcos. Respondents to the survey were asked in Filipino: Who do you think is the best leader who should succeed Pres. Marcos Jr. as president?

Coming at a far second was Sen. Raffy Tulfo with 11% and former Vice President Leni Robredo with 6%. Former President Rodrigo Duterte came in fourth with 3%, followed by former Sen. Manny Pacquiao with 2%.

A certain Arnel Ty commissioned the survey, although it is unclear whether he is the same as the former LPGMA party-list representative.

Robredo ran for president in 2022 against Marcos, but lost to him by a wide margin. Former President Duterte, having already served as chief executive, cannot serve again as the Constitution bars him from doing so.

Sen. Robinhood Padilla, former Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso, President Marcos, his sister Sen. Imee Marcos, and his son, Rep. Sandro Marcos (Ilocos Norte) all got 1%.

Like his predecessor Duterte, President Marcos cannot run again for president. Meanwhile, his son will only be 34 years old by the next presidential elections and will not be eligible to be president, as the Constitution sets a minimum age requirement of 40 years old.

The poll was conducted from April 15 to 18 through face-to-face computer-assisted personal interviews, with a margin of error of ±3% for national percentages and ±6% each for Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.

Early poll

In at least the past three presidential elections, early pre-survey polls were rarely reliable predictors of the final outcome of the vote as many events may still transpire in the political arena.

For one, the Pulse Asia survey released more than a year before the 2022 elections showed then Davao City Mayor Duterte as the leading bet for president, followed by Marcos Jr. who was tied with Sen. Grace Poe.

But Duterte slid down to become Marcos’ running-mate, which ended with both of them winning the vice presidency and presidency, respectively.

In the 2016 presidential race, then Vice President Jejomar Binay was the early frontrunner, only to be overtaken by Poe and later on by the older Duterte.

Then in the 2010 race to Malacañang, then-Senate President Manny Villar topped surveys, but his colleague in the upper chamber, Benigno Aquino III shot to the top following the death of his mother, former President Corazon Aquino.

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