Manila as a new Venice

Leaders of island nations have expressed fears during the recently concluded COP26 Leaders Summit in Glasgow that their islands will disappear soon unless united global action on climate change happens now.

The president of Seychelles, Wavel John Charles Ramkalawan, said he is “scared” of the effect climate change will have on his country.

“When I hear the expression rising sea level, I am scared because it brings home the awareness that my country’s beautiful archipelago of 115 islands may be reduced to less than 50 islands as the coral reefs disappear.”

The former president of the Maldives, Mohamed Rasheed, delivered a defiant message: No compromise on 1.5 C.

“Anything above 1.5 C and the Maldives will not be there. We cannot sign a suicide pact,” he told the Guardian.

I wonder how many of our 7,100 islands will be left once rising sea level starts to claim them. Sea level in the Philippines may be rising faster than the global average, meteorologist and climatologist Lourdes Tibig told ANC, the ABS-CBN News Channel.

“The global average is 3.7 millimeters per year. In that particular study site in the Visayas, they found out that the sea level rise is happening four times 3.7 millimeters per year,” she said.

But we don’t have to go far. Our National Capital Region will be the area most impacted by this threat, affecting the conduct of business and government, as well as livelihoods of millions of people.

Just before the conference, Greenpeace came out with a report which listed Asian cities at risk of turning into water worlds because of extreme weather changes by 2030. The six are: Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila, Tokyo,Taipei, Seoul, and Hong Kong.

Looking at a map showing the impact of rising sea levels due to climate change, it seems the entire city of Manila is at risk of becoming a new Venice. Experts estimate that in about three decades, Manila could be submerged as sea levels rise at unprecedented rates.

A tourist going on a city tour to visit Binondo, Intramuros, Malacañan Palace, and the Rizal Monument in Luneta Park will have to do it by a vaporetto or a water bus like in Venice.

According to the Greenpeace study, at least 87 percent or 37.29 square kilometers of the city’s land would feel the impact of the 10-year flood in 2030.

Greenpeace warned that some 1.54 million people living in the city of Manila and 37.29 square kilometers (km2) of land area could potentially be affected by extreme sea level rise and coastal flooding in 2030 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at the current rate.

Manila’s problem is two-fold… There is the effect of climate change on rising sea level and then there is virtually unregulated and excessive groundwater use leading to land subsidence, which will eventually result in flooding.

The sea level at Manila Bay is rising four times faster than the global average, according to Dennis Bringas, chief of the Physical Oceanography Division at the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority, as quoted by Channel News Asia (CNA).

Studies suggest that sea level in Manila Bay is rising by 13.24 millimeters per year, and Metro Manila is sinking by a rate of 10 centimeters annually as a consequence of rapid extraction of groundwater due to population growth and urbanization.

Dr. Mahar Lagmay, executive director of the University of the Philippines Resilience Institute, told CNA the rate of subsidence started to rise during the 1960s, at the height of the city’s industrialization, when the growing population meant a greater demand for water.

“When you develop in wanton fashion, and all places are already occupied because of the growing population (and) the poor planning, then disaster strikes,” Lagmay told Channel News Asia.

Greenpeace points out that there is scientific evidence suggesting that by 2050, many of the Philippine coastal regions, including the Manila Bay area, could be underwater due to the effects of climate change.

Disaster risk experts say that Metro Manila’s poor urban planning and land use policies have increased its vulnerability to climate change. These will deepen the inequalities among the 13 million people who live in the national capital and will affect their capacity to withstand shocks.

It will be silly to assume that the world can agree on a climate change mitigation effort that matters any time soon. This early, we have to start moving with the assumption that Manila will be sunk in 30 years and we have the remaining time to prepare for that.

Indonesia has accepted the fact that Jakarta is a hopeless case and they have made a decision to move the national capital to Kalimantan. We have made tentative noises about moving the capital to Clark, but there is as yet no concrete plan on just how that will be done.

We are still business as usual, which means bahala na. Plans to reclaim more land along Roxas Boulevard for so-called new cities are still apparently being approved. We are not being told how developers plan to deal with rising sea level.

Millions of urban poor live along the coastline and we have not heard of plans to help them. They will most likely just wake up one morning to see themselves living in a water world.

It seems we do not lack studies, nor do we lack scientists who can help craft a workable response to the challenge posed by rising seas due to climate change in Manila and our other coastal cities.

Unfortunately, the government and the private sector developers have short horizons that ignore the catastrophic impact of climate change in our cities for quick profits.

Well, we have been warned. We have run out of time and we are all to blame. Or maybe, Manila as a new Venice isn’t such a bad idea if we can make our esteros romantic and garbage free.

Boo Chanco’s email address is [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @boochanco