‘International travel to return to pre-COVID-19 level in 2024’

MANILA, Philippines — International travel in Asia and the Pacific, including the Philippines, is seen to return to pre-pandemic level only in 2024 as the region is trailing Europe and the Middle East in vaccinating its population and introducing mobility programs.

In a survey, the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) said that 51 percent of its panel of experts expect international tourism to revert to pre-pandemic levels from 2021 to 2023, while the remaining 49 percent sees full recovery only by 2024 or later.

In Asia Pacific, economies may only see their foreign arrivals default to 2019 numbers by 2024, according to 56 percent of UNWTO experts.

On the other hand, 54 percent said Europe may regain its pre-pandemic figures before 2024, as the region reopens its borders to international travel through the use of vaccine passports. In the Middle East, recovery is seen to take place as early as next year.

UNWTO secretary general Zurab Pololikashvili said confidence is now returning with vaccines coming in for countries mostly in the Americas and Europe. However, he said there is a need for governments to synchronize their travel regulations for the pent-up demand to materialize.

“Vaccinations will be key for recovery, but we must improve coordination and communication while making testing easier and more affordable if we want to see a rebound for the summer season in the northern hemisphere,” Pololikashvili said.

In Europe, countries are enforcing the EU digital green certificate that travelers must present to enter a European border.

The document, which includes an individual’s vaccination records, test and recovery status and medical history, will allow travelers to move around Europe without need to undergo the usual entry requirements.

In the first quarter, the UNWTO reported that international arrivals declined by 83 percent, or by 180 million, compared to the same period last year. Asia Pacific endured the worst drop of 94 percent due to a return to lockdowns in several economies including in the Philippines.

The government is assessing ways on how to resume international travel without compromising gains made in containing the virus. A small working group headed by the Department of

Tourism and the Department of Foreign Affairs is now looking into the option of setting up a green lane.

Through the green lane, vaccinated foreigners can enter the Philippines and quarantine for just seven days, from 14 days at present.

Last year inbound arrivals in the country fell by more than 82 percent to 1.48 million, from 8.26 million in 2019.