Pulse Asia: Marcos' lead grows, Robredo's lead shrinks in January pre-election surveys

Franco Luna - Philstar.com
Pulse Asia: Marcos' lead grows, Robredo's lead shrinks in January pre-election surveys
This composite photo shows former Sen. Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. and Vice President Leni Robredo.
Marcos campaign | OVP

MANILA, Philippines — Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late ousted dictator, not only maintained but expanded his sizable lead over his rivals in January, while clear second-place Vice President Leni Robredo saw her support among likely voters shrink, pre-election survey results from Pulse Asia Research suggest. 

According to the survey results by Pulse Asia released to media Sunday afternoon, the former senator still has a solid hold on the lead in all geographic areas and socio-economic groupings and would be elected as the next Philippine president if the elections took place during the survey period.

From holding 53% of support from "registered voters in their cities and municipalities" in December, Marcos in late January had 60% support from "likely voters." 

On the other hand, Robredo's 20% of respondents in the last Pulse Asia survey in December shrunk down to just 16% for the month of January.

Pulse Asia observed, however, that the vice president posted double-digit voter preferences across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, with Mindanao being the sole exception at just 8% support.

Robredo's numbers in December were noted for their clear increases over the last surveys, indicating steady momentum. 

Within the time period the survey's interviews were conducted, the Commission on Elections unanimously dismissed a petition to cancel the certificate of candidacy of former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. over his tax offense conviction.

In that same frame, Marcos refused to join other presidential candidates in the taped Jessica Soho Presidential Interviews because he claimed Soho was “biased” against him and his family.

Pulse Asia also noted that in one forum he did attend, Marcos said he has no plans to release his Statement of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth or SALN to the public because he claimed it would only be "used for political attacks."

READ: Isko strategist says Marcos' numbers going down due to media no-shows

As in the last survey, Manila City Mayor Isko Moreno still had the highest second-choice voter preference or among voters whose first choice for the presidency decides to withdraw from the elections, notching 24% of second-choice votes.

But when it came to first-choice votes, Moreno was still tied with Sen. Manny Pacquiao with just 8% of the total vote. Sen. Panfilo Lacson was last among the top 5 candidates with just 4%.

Marcos' lead on his rivals was clear across all regions and all social classes. In both Metro Manila and Mindanao, he took more than half of voters with 61% and 64%, respectively.  

Sara Duterte, Tito Sotto lead vice presidential race

In the vice-presidential race, Pulse Asia noted that Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte is the frontrunner in the May 2022 vice-presidential race while Senate President Vicente Sotto III posts the highest second-choice voting figure.

Surveys serve as a snapshot of public sentiment during the survey period and are hardly conclusive pictures of the actual election results later on. These have historically changed over time, but serve as guides for candidates and their campaign teams.

The national campaign period prescribed by the Commission on Elections is set to continue for 85 more days until the elections on May 9. 

READ: Pulse Asia: Marcos clear leader, Robredo steadily improving

"A small majority of likely voters (53%) have a complete slate for the May 2022 senatorial election; 13 out of the 64 senatorial candidates have a statistical chance of winning, with Mr. Raffy Tulfo enjoying solo 1st place (66.1%)," Pulse Asia also said of the senatorial race. 

"Most likely voters (62%) are aware of the party-list system; nine (9) party-list groups succeed in surpassing the 2.0% voter preference threshold needed to secure at least one (1) congressional seat."

For the nationwide survey, Pulse Asia interviewed 2,400 Filipino adults aged 18 years old and above and reported a ± 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey also have a ± 4% error margin, also at 95% confidence level.

"Pulse Asia Research’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data," the report read. 

"In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia Research undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort."

— with a report from Xave Gregorio 



As It Happens
LATEST UPDATE: May 2, 2022 - 12:03pm

Follow this thread for updates on the aspirants for local and national posts in the May 2022 elections. — Main photo by The STAR/Boy Santos

May 2, 2022 - 12:03pm

Former senator Bongbong Marcos, with 56%, maintains his lead in the Pulse Asia pre-election survey conducted from April 16 to 21.

Vice President Leni Robredo ranks second with 23% followed by Sen. Manny Pacquiao with 7%.

Manila Mayor Isko Moreno ranks fourth with 4% and Sen. Ping Lacson is in fifth place with 2%.

February 13, 2022 - 4:12pm

The latest Pulse Asia pre-election survey shows that former senator Bongbong Marcos remains the top choice of 60% of Filipinos for president.

Vice President Leni Robredo ranks second with 16%, followed by boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao and Manila Mayor Isko Moreno with 8% each.

Sen. Ping Lacson is in the fifth place with 4%. The poll was conducted from January 19 to 24 using face-to-face interviews.

February 8, 2022 - 8:27am

Larry Gadon, a candidate for senator, is accused of violating Republic Act 11313 or the Safe Spaces Act after he was seen in a viral video cursing at a journalist, according to a report by ABS-CBN.

The complaints, which include libel and cyberlibel charges, were filed by freelance investigative journalist Raissa Robles. Gadon had accused her of spreading fake news in a separate video.

The Supreme Court last month suspended Gadon for profanities he hurled at Robles in the earlier video.

January 30, 2022 - 11:26am

Vice President Leni Robredo and Sen. Kiko Pangilinan will hold their proclamation rally in Naga City, Camarines Sur on February 8, campaign manager Erin Tanada says.

Tanada adds that the opposition camp will also hold proclamation rallies in different areas in Bicol region on from February 8 to 9.

All 12 senatorial bets endorsed by Robredo are also invited to the event.

January 29, 2022 - 10:18am

Makabayan coalition holds press briefing on their endorsement of the tandem of Vice President Leni Robredo and Sen. Kiko Pangilinan. — Xave Gregorio

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