Grace to benefit from Duterte decision – political analyst

MANILA, Philippines - The decision of Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte not to run for president in next year’s polls will favor Sen. Grace Poe’s presidential bid, a political expert claimed.

University of the Philippines professor Prospero de Vera believes that the fewer the candidates, the bigger the chances of Poe to win.

He cited the recent surveys such as the Laylo Report showing that in a three-way contest, Poe will pull away with 47 points, followed by Vice President Jejomar Binay and former interior secretary Manuel Roxas II who were tied at 26 points. The internal surveys of other political parties and candidates show a similar trend.

“The recent survey conducted by Laylo shows that Senator Poe would benefit from the decision of Mayor Duterte not to run because she would further increase her lead in a three-way race,” he stressed during the Financial Executives of the Philippines (FINEX) conference last week.

Despite public clamor, Duterte announced last Friday his decision not to seek the presidency.

The survey conducted by Laylo from Sept. 21 to Oct. 1 with 1,500 respondents from 76 provinces in the country and 17 cities in the National Capital Region showed Poe leading the pack of eight possible candidates including herself, Roxas, Binay, Duterte, Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada, Senators Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Miriam Santiago and former senator Richard Gordon.

Poe garnered 32 percent while Roxas placed second at 19 percent, followed by Binay (14 percent), Duterte (10 percent), Estrada (nine percent), Marcos (seven percent), Santiago (six percent) and Gordon (one percent).

Poe also led the survey across all geographic areas, economic classes, gender and age groups. 

By ethnicity, Poe was the top choice among the Tagalogs (29 percent), Cebuanos (35 percent), Ilonggos (36 percent), Ilocanos (30 percent), Bicolanos (40 percent), and Muslim groups (27 percent). It was only among the Warays that Poe placed second with 19 percent, with Binay taking the lead at 42 percent.

The most recent Ulat sa Bayan survey of Pulse Asia also showed Poe maintaining her lead over presidential candidates in the survey conducted Sept. 8 to 14 on 2,400 respondents, with a rating of 26 percent followed by Roxas with 20 percent, Binay with 19 percent and Duterte with 16 percent.

De Vera, the president of the Association of Political Consultants in Asia (APCA), said Poe’s espousal of a clean campaign focused on issues and platforms rather than personal attacks is connecting her with voters. 

De Vera, in earlier media interviews, said that among the presidential candidates, Poe had presented the most comprehensive and detailed platform of government.

Poe’s other opponents in the presidential race should take seriously the recent surveys showing Poe still leading despite the disqualification case before the Senate Electoral Tribunal and the media attention given to her renunciation of Filipino citizenship to become an American in 2001, added De Vera.

According to De Vera, “we need, and must demand from all presidential candidates, to launch issue-based campaigns. The problems facing our country are much too grave for all of us to disregard and we must not allow candidates to get away with generalizations and platitudes of good intention.”

The recent survey results showed that Poe and her team have chosen the clean campaign route, which is focused on issues and platforms and this is connecting her with the voters, De Vera said.

The entry of new candidates, such as Santiago, will certainly make the campaign more issue-oriented and exciting. Santiago is noted for her sharp wit and advocacy for national issues.

“Candidates must realize that voters are now taking a closer look at what platforms these candidates are offering. They can see past the mudslinging and are taking a look at the issues and how these candidates will address them should they be voted into office,” De Vera said.