Oscars 2018: Fearless forecast

MANILA, Philippines — Uncle Oscar turns 90 this year. If you would recall, an Academy librarian-turned-executive director Margaret Herrick is unofficially credited to having named the golden statuette after she exclaimed that it resembled her uncle.

On March 4 (March 5 in Manila), the annual Oscar season reaches the homestretch when the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences finally crowns the winners of the highly-coveted honors outside of the Nobel Prizes. Barring any snafu similar to last year’s embarrassing envelope-gate, this year’s contest is expected to be more predictable with Guillermo del Toro’s supernatural and timely fable The Shape of Water (13 nominations) and the explosive drama Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (seven nominations) duking it out for the top Best Picture honors towards the end of the evening.

HBO will be broadcasting the show live in Manila. Subscribers can also stream the Oscars Red Carpet Live starting at 7:30 a.m. followed by The 90th Academy Awards Live at 9 a.m. on HBO Go. Both programs will encore that same night on HBO at 7 p.m. and 8 p.m., respectively.

This season is not wanting of any scandals. The red carpet is expected to still be buzzy with the #MeToo and #TimesUp initiatives brought on by the revelation of the sexual abuses of some of Hollywood’s powerful men. And, just this week, a couple more controversies erupted. Actor Brendan Fraser accused Australian journalist Philip Berk, a former president and current member of the HFPA (the group that bestows the Golden Globes), of sexual assault more than a decade ago. And on Monday, Ryan Seacrest’s former stylist has come out publicly with her graphic description of the sexual harassment she suffered from the TV host and red carpet interviewer who is surprisingly still expected to be on the red carpet asking celebrities about their dresses — only in Hollywood, they say.

Russia’s Loveless has been predicted to win Best Foreign Language Film

Announced performers are Gael Garcia Bernal, Mary J. Blige, Andra Day, Natalia LaFourcade, Miguel, Keala Settle, Sufjan Stevens and Oscar-winner Common. They will be performing songs nominated in the Best Original Song category. Go Coco!

Joining The Shape of Water and Three Billboards... in the Best Picture race are seven other films: Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread and The Post. Many are predicting a win for Three Billboards... in this category after it won the SAG, Critics Choice and BAFTA awards earlier in the season. But it did not win the all-too-important Producers Guild Award which has a preferential voting system similar to that observed by the Academy; they picked The Shape of Water. And, with Three Billboards... not scoring a Best Director nod for Martin McDonagh, I am calling the Best Picture race in Del Toro’s corner, who is also widely expected to nab the Best Director trophy to finally join his compatriots Alfonso Cuaron and Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu in the winners circle.

Nominated alongside Del Toro for Best Director are Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) and first-time nominees Jordan Peele (Get Out), Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) and Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) — yes, this is the acclaimed British director’s first nomination.

In the Best Actress race, Frances McDomand is expected to receive her second Oscar after Fargo for her explosive performance as a mother seeking justice for her daughter’s rape and murder in Three Billboards... Other nominees are Sally Hawkins, who plays a mute woman in love with a fish-like creature in The Shape of Water, Margot Robbie, who plays the infamous Tonya Harding in I, Tonya, Saoirse Ronan, who was wonderful in Lady Bird and Meryl Streep for The Post.

Shape of Water is one of the seven nominees for Best Picture

Gary Oldman, one of the greatest character actors ever, is the frontrunner in the Best Actor race for his fierce portrayal of Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. And if ever there’s an upset in this category, expect Daniel Kaluuya to edge out the other nominees for his performance in Get Out. Also nominated are Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread) and Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.).

The Best Supporting Actress race is also pretty much done after Allison Janney swept all the major precursor awards for her performance in I, Tonya. British actress (and Gary Oldman’s ex) Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) and Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) complete the nominees’ list.

The one contest where a major surprise could emerge would be in the Best Supporting Actor race. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards...) virtually swept all the major precursors similar to Janney but he is up against sentimental favorite Willem Dafoe who was quietly masterful as a motel manager in The Florida Project — one of the year’s very best films. I am calling this race in Dafoe’s favor by a tiny margin and a lot of prayers. Other actors nominated in the category are Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards...), Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) and Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World).

Disney-Pixar’s masterpiece Coco will win Best Animated Film.

(Left)Gary Oldman is the frontrunner in the Best Actor race for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. (Right) Frances McDomand is expected to receive her second Oscar for her performance as a mother seeking justice in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Russia’s Loveless (and my top favorite film of 2017) could emerge as the Best Foreign Language Film winner against The Square from Sweden, On Body and Soul from Hungary, The Insult from Lebanon and A Fantastic Woman from Chile.

And, if you will, I would like to make a major Oscar prediction a year in advance. Black Panther will rule the 91st Oscars. Wakanda forever!