El Nino effect: Double-digit decline in palay output seen

MANILA, Philippines —  The country’s palay or unmilled rice harvest is projected to decline by 17 percent in the third quarter, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.

PSA data as of Sept. 1 showed that palay harvest could drop to 3.1 million metric tons (MT) in the July to September period.

The recent projection is a 17.2-percent decline from the 3.75 million MT output in the third quarter of 2025. It was also a 4.8-percent downgrade from the 3.26 million MT estimate in July.

The projected decline is in line with the effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is expected to bring below-normal levels of rainfall until the early part of next year.

The PSA reported that the estimated harvest area for palay could decline to 753,680 hectares, or a 17.8-percent drop from the 916,770 hectares in actual harvest area last year.

Despite the drop in harvest area, yield per hectare of palay may increase to 4.12 MT per hectare from the 4.09 MT per hectare last year.

As of Sept. 1, about 334,330 hectares of palay have been harvested, or 44 percent of the updated harvest area, and translated to an estimated 1.32 million MT of palay.

Of the total area of 1.8 million hectares of standing palay, 40.6 percent were at the reproductive stage, 38.3 percent were at the vegetative stage and 21.1 percent were at the maturing stage.

The Department of Agriculture estimates that El Niño may reduce the country’s rice output by around 700,000 MT, heightening concerns over local supply and adding pressure on rice prices as the weather phenomenon continues to affect production.