Ample stocks to keep Philippines from importing sugar

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines may not import sugar in the next market year (MY) 2025 as stocks remain ample from carryover of previous import programs, an international agency said.

The United States Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) in Manila projected that the Philippines will not import raw sugar in MY 2025 as the government “seeks to protect local producers.”

The market year for sugar begins on Sept. 1, aligned with the domestic cropping calendar being followed by the sugar industry.

USDA-FAS Manila added that it does not see the country importing refined sugar as well given the huge importations made in previous market years, resulting in high carryover stocks.

“There remain ample supplies of both raw and refined sugar in the market,” the USDA-FAS Manila said in its recent Global Agricultural Inform Network (Gain) report.

The Philippines imported about 730,000 metric tons (MT) of refined sugar in the previous market/crop year 2022-2023 to plug the shortfall in supply.

The USDA-FAS Manila estimated that the country will begin the next market year with 1.19 million MT of combined raw and refined sugar stocks.

In terms of production, the USDA-FAS Manila projected that the country’s raw sugar output would remain flat in MY 2025 at 1.85 million MT as ill effects of El Niño would negate the foreseen expansion in sugarcane areas.

The country’s sugarcane output would inch up to 21.6 million MT next year from the current market year’s projected volume of 21.5 million MT. Total area planted with sugarcane would expand to 387,000 hectares from 385,000 hectares.

“With high prices, farmers expanded sugarcane area, but some farms with no irrigation are suffering from the ongoing El Niño, which stunted sugarcane growth,” it said.

“Some new plantings in the past three months with no irrigation suffered from stunting due to El Niño and will produce lower yields in MY 2025,” it added.

The international agency aligned its projected output for the current market year with the initial 1.85 million MT production forecast of the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA).

“Sugarcane was not affected as much as expected compared to earlier predictions of a 10 to 15 percent drop in production due to El Niño,” the USDA-FAS Manila said, referring to raw sugar output in MY 2024.

Latest SRA data showed that raw sugar production as of March 31 stood at 1.779 million MT, almost 12 percent higher than the 1.59 million MT recorded in the same period last year.

SRA administrator Pablo Luis Azcona told The STAR that they are maintaining their 1.85 million MT raw sugar output estimate for the current crop year.

The USDA-FAS Manila expects total sugar demand in MY 2025 to remain flat as well at 2.2 million MT. The international agency does not see the Philippines exporting sugar again to the world market except fulfillment of its tariff rate quota allocation to the United States.