OCTA: NCR positivity rate could mean 1k COVID cases, but peak expected 'soon'
MANILA, Philippines — The newly-recorded positivity rate of 11.5% in Metro Manila could lead to 1,000 more cases of the coronavirus in the capital region, though the peak of the current surge is expected to happen soon, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said Thursday.
"A look at the plot of new COVID-19 cases in the NCR shows that the trend may have already peaked," OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said in a tweet advisory issued on behalf of the think tank.
He was careful, however, to point out that more than a tenth of all tests are coming out positive in Metro Manila where the positivity rate has now increased to 11.5%.
On Wednesday, Metro Manila recorded 637 new cases of the pathogen while Iloilo and Laguna followed with 131 and 113 additional cases, respectively. No other province breached 100 cases that day.
Broken down per local government unit, 112 of those cases were from Quezon City while 110 were from Makati. Manila City tacked on 73 more cases while Pasig recorded 52 more. No other city in the capital region logged more than 50 COVID-19 cases.
"This could lead to more than 1,000 new cases in the NCR on July 14. If cases do increase, we still expect the peak to happen soon, unless the wave becomes prolonged," David said.
Meanwhile, the reproduction number — or the number of people a COVID-positive patient can pass the virus to — has already decreased to 1.36.
David added that the healthcare utilization rate in Metro Manila 30.2% with 1,856 hospital beds occupied while ICU occupancy stood at 22.6%, though he said that "both [numbers] are still within safe levels."
Earlier Thursday, Press Secretary Trixie Cruz Angeles announced that Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, previously spokesperson of the health department, has been designated officer-in-charge of the Department of Health.
"Vergeire has shown that she has the leadership skills for this position," David said, calling the appointment a "good choice."
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