‘Inflation likely to sizzle above 5% starting April’

MANILA, Philippines — Inflation is expected to reach over five percent this month as higher fuel and food costs are passed on to the rest of the economy, according to the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P).

“Oil prices are expected to stabilize below $90 per barrel as tensions ease, but inflation could rise above five percent from April due to second-round effects,” UA&P said in The Market Call report for April.

Inflation rose to 4.1 percent in March, a 20-month high, as the conflict in the Middle East pushed up prices.

Last month’s inflation print breached the government’s two to four percent target for the year.

With inflation expected to stay above target this year, UA&P said this would dampen the country’s economic growth.

UA&P said it is sticking with its 3.1 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for the first quarter.

This forecast is unchanged from the projection it provided last month.

UA&P’s first quarter GDP forecast is slightly higher than the three percent growth posted in the fourth quarter.

However, the forecast is below the government’s five to six percent growth target for the year.

“Government spending and employment may pick up, but high inflation and interest rates will limit gains,” UA&P said.

It also said it expects the economy to bounce back in the second half of the year.

“Economic recovery is likely in H2 (second half) 2026 as government spending rebounds, accelerating once the conflict nears resolution,” UA&P said.

Data on the first quarter economic performance will be released next month.