Exports expected to gradually recover this year

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is expected to see an improvement in exports this year, but the recovery would be gradual, according to think tank Oxford Economics.

“We think the annual growth (in exports) will likely improve this year,” Oxford economist Makoto Tsuchiya said in an email.

He said the improving chip cycle is expected to provide support to the country’s exports this year.

“However, the pace of recovery will be moderate as we expect soft global growth,” he said.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that electronic products remained the country’s top export in November last year, amounting to $3.44 billion or 56 percent of the total.

The value of the country’s electronic exports in November, however, was down by 24.7 percent from $4.56 billion in the same month in 2022.

In the January to November period, Philippine exports of electronic products declined by 10.4 percent to $37.98 billion from $42.37 billion in the same period in 2022.

Total export of goods fell by 13.7 percent to $6.13 billion in November last year from $7.10 billion in the same month in 2022.

For the 11-month period, the value of Philippine exports of goods decreased by 8.4 percent to $67.03 billion from $73.18 billion in the same period in 2022.

Tsuchiya said the subdued export performance reflects weak external demand as global monetary tightening hit demand in the country’s main trading partners.

While merchandise exports declined by 13.7 percent in November, he said this was an improvement from the 17.5 percent drop in October.

“We estimate sequential growth in November was positive, meaning the large annual decline is largely due to base effects,” he said.

As negative base effects fade, he said, exports would likely post growth.