Matter of mileage

TNT KaTropa coach Nash Racela is fastened to a seat belt for the long haul and his approach to the PBA Philippine Cup best-of-seven semifinal series against San Miguel Beer is to stretch the mileage of his players in anticipation of a fight to the finish.

So far, Racela’s gamble is paying off. San Miguel was on an 11-game win streak when TNT cracked the magical run with an 87-85 win in Game 2 of the tie. Then, as if to prove the victory was no fluke, the Tropa took Game 3, 98-92, to deal the Beermen their first back-to-back losses this season.

But San Miguel wouldn’t go down a notch lower and recoiled to repulse TNT, 97-86, in Game 4 to even the duel at two wins apiece. Tonight, the teams take to the floor for Game 5 to start a virtual best-of-three series at the Smart Araneta Coliseum. The winner gains a critical twice-to-beat advantage moving into Game 6 so expect the protagonists to go all out. 

TNT appeared to hold back in Game 4 last Tuesday as Racela limited the minutes of Kelly Williams (19:44) and Mo Tautuaa (14:41). In the conference, Williams is averaging 21 minutes and Tautuaa, 18.5. When TNT took Game 2, Williams logged 23:06 minutes and Tautuaa, 20:44. In Game 1, Williams had 25:45 minutes and Tautuaa, 22:22. Their minutes are crucial because they’re TNT’s primary defenders for JuneMar Fajardo.

Whether Racela deliberately pulled back Williams and Tautuaa is something he surely will neither deny nor confirm. Coaches won’t reveal tactics and strategies in the course of a series. But it stands to reason that Racela did it on purpose. TNT, after all, was ahead, 2-1, in the series and could afford to take a step back for two steps forward. With less minutes in Game 4, Willliams and Tautuaa will be unleashed in full force in Game 5 tonight.

The battle has been tactical so far with San Miguel coach Leo Austria and Racela managing the minutes of their key players. You don’t want your best players sputtering or running out of gas down the stretch. It’s really a matter of generating the most productivity out of mileage. In a short series, San Miguel has a huge edge because Austria relies on a trim but explosive rotation. In a long series, it could go either way because TNT has the advantage in depth but there is no more talented starting unit in the league than San Miguel’s first five.

In the semis, Racela has deployed seven different starters while San Miguel has stuck to the same first unit every game – Fajardo, Arwind Santos, Alex Cabagnot, Marcio Lassiter and Chris Ross who are all averaging at least 35 minutes. In all, only six San Miguel players are averaging at least 14 minutes. In contrast, TNT has 10 players averaging at least 14 minutes, none more than 32.8 with Jayson Castro. It’s no wonder that TNT’s bench is outscoring the San Miguel relievers by an average of 24.8 points.

Starting in Game 2, Racela has started Castro and Ranidel de Ocampo, opting to open strong to match San Miguel’s talent. Before Game 2, Castro and De Ocampo had come off the bench the last six outings. Not coincidentally, TNT won Game 2 and took Game 3, too. De Ocampo was particularly sharp in Game 3 with 24 points and nine rebounds as Castro compiled 11 points, four rebounds and 12 dimes. At the end of the eliminations, Castro averaged 3.6 rebounds and 5.3 assists but in the semis, the numbers have gone up to 4.3 boards and 9.3 assists. Williams’ scoring average has also improved from 8.3 to 13.5 and Roger Pogoy bumped up his production from 8.4 to 12.

The wear and tear of a gruelling campaign is taking a toll on Austria’s nucleus. Fajardo’s free throw clip has dropped from 70.1 percent in the eliminations to 63 percent in the semis. It’s the same with Cabagnot as his clip went from 70.4 to 66.7. Ross, however, has shown remarkable improvement from averaging 5.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 6.4 assists in the eliminations to 13 points, 7.0 boards and 6.8 dimes in the semis. In Game 4, Ross and Lassiter logged over 40 minutes each and Fajardo, 38.25. Ross delivered a career-high 31 points in towing San Miguel to victory.

Austria realizes that he can’t push his starters to the limit every game. Gabby Espinas, R. R.Garcia, Brian Heruela, Jay-R Reyes, Ronald Tubid, Keith Agovida and Yancy de Ocampo must do their share to ease the burden. Austria’s job at master control is to manage everyone’s minutes to maximize output.

With the series knotted at 2-all, Game 5 could be a preview of how this will end. Austria and Racela will match wits once more, making every move count. The stats that seem to indicate the better team from Game 1 to Game 4 are assists and field goal percentage. They’re correlated because an assist assumes execution for an open shot, meaning a high percentage look and unselfish play. The team with more assists and a higher field goal clip has won each game in the series. The trend should continue the rest of the way.