Luzon faces gloomy power outlook

MANILA, Philippines — Luzon may face several yellow and red alerts next year should the Ilijan gas-fired power plant not be able to deliver in time for summer period, according to the Department of Energy (DOE).

In a scenario with forced outage and without output from the Ilijan power plant, DOE Electric Power Industry Management Bureau director Irma Exconde said there would be occurrence of 17 yellow alerts and three red alerts next year.

“The scenario using the basic assumption shown earlier and reducing the power supply with the assumed forced or unforeseen outages indicates that there will be adequate power supply in the Luzon grid. No yellow or red alerts are expected,” Exconde said during the virtual Energy Investment Forum yesterday.

“However, should Ilijan gas-fired power plant will not be able to deliver in time for summer period, then there will be occurrence of 17 yellow alerts and three  red alerts in 2023,” she said.

The 1,200-megawatt (MW) Ilijan power plant’s gas supply and purchase agreement from the Malampaya gas field has ended in June.

Exconde said the red alerts are seen to occur in May and June peak months as capacity would fall below required regulating reserve.

Yellow alerts, meanwhile, may occur from various period between February and June, and from October to early December next year.

A yellow alert is raised when there are not enough reserves to cover the largest running generating unit at the time, but does not necessarily lead to power outages.

Red alert, on the other hand, is placed over the grid when the supply to demand balance further worsens, which can lead to rotating power interruptions.

To improve the supply situation in the Luzon grid and avoid any red alerts, Exconde said the transmission constraint from the Bataan power plants to the load center in Metro Manila should be addressed immediately.

This can be done through the improvement of system operations to maximize available plants, timely completion of transmission projects by the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP), and assistance on specific project segments where the DOE needs to provide necessary interventions for the right-of-way issues and other government agencies’ approval.

“With these measures, the additional 668-MW GNPower Dinginin and other power plants in the pipeline in Bataan will be able to supply the needs of the Luzon grid,” Exconde said.

The official said the DOE, in cooperation with the NGCP and the National Transmission Corp., are also aggressively coordinating with other concerned government agencies and the judiciary, both at the national and local levels, to have documentary approvals be issued soonest for the transmission projects to proceed and be completed.

For the Visayas, Exconde said the completion of transmission projects are likewise critical.

The DOE has used two scenarios for Visayas power outlook for next year – one is for afternoon peak when solar are available and the other is for evening peak when solar is not available.

Exconde said that for the afternoon peak, there would be sufficient power supply in Visayas for the first half of 2023.

On the second half, however, she said there are possibilities of yellow alerts due to stranded generating capacity while the uprating of the Cebu-Negros-Panay projects are not yet completed.

“For the evening peak, there will be tighter supply in the second half,  so there’ll be high possibility of yellow alert and even red alerts,” Exconde said.

“However, please note that this representation has not yet considered that during evening, the Luzon grid has an excess capacity that can be exported to Visayas via HVDC (high voltage direct current) 250 MW maximum capacity, thus they could address those supply deficiencies to avoid power outages,” she said.

Meanwhile, the DOE’s power outlook showed that the Mindanao grid would still have  surplus capacity for 2023 even after considering the possible forced or unforeseen outages.

Exconde said in case there are pockets of power interruptions in some areas of Mindanao, those are not supply availability issue but possibly voltage problem, distribution facility problems, power supply contracting issues, non-payment of obligations, or some untoward incidents.

She said the implementation of the Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection Project or MVIP would allow the export of the excess capacities in Mindanao to the other major grids.

“The MVIP has an export capability of 450 MW. Once completed, the country is expected to benefit from more efficient use of available energy resources nationwide,” Exconde said.