Taiwan versus China

Just this week there was a confrontation between Chinese and Taiwan ships in the waters between Taiwan and the Philippines. Ever since Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan and established a government, there have always been predictions that someday, China will invade Taiwan. However, for the past 75 years or so, there has been a virtual stalemate between the two countries.

In recent years, the discussions about China finally invading Taiwan have increased and many writers have predicted that this will happen towards the end of this decade.

I recently read an article by Dennis Blair, former US director of National Intelligence. In his article, he wrote:

“The reality today is that China is not capable of conquering Taiwan. Nor is it likely to gain this capability anytime soon. China’s buildup once threatened to shift the military balance in Beijing’s favor, but trends in military technology now favor Taiwan and the United States, not China. Recognition of China’s threat has motivated not just Taiwan and the United States but also Japan, the Philippines and other countries both in the region and beyond to act to deter aggression by Beijing.”

One example of this has been the war between Russia, a superpower, and Ukraine, a much smaller nation. Through the use of new military technology, especially the use of drones as weapons, Ukraine has been able to prevent any new Russian acquisition of Ukrainian territory.

In recent years, China has expanded its military forces. However, China’s military buildup has not produced weapons systems that would be valuable in conquering Taiwan.

Blair says that in sophisticated simulations of a Taiwan invasion the US Department of Defense held in the past decade, using even the most highly classified systems from both sides, China was always thwarted in achieving its objective of conquering the island.

Many geopolitical writers now are focusing on what China would do against Taiwan short of a full invasion.

First, with its present capabilities, China can strike a variety of targets in Taiwan which the Taiwanese can only partially blunt. It can strike against infrastructure, industrial sites or government facilities. But this option would not only damage property but also kill or injure the citizens of Taiwan that China claims are also Chinese. The recent examples of the failure of American air strikes on Iran have shown the limits of relying on air strikes to bring about the capitulation of a nation.

Second, China may decide to impose a sea and air blockade. However, blockades can lead to complications that will minimize their coercive power. Blockades cannot stop merchant vessels from neutral countries with non-military cargos. A blockade can also lead to international retaliation against Chinese vessels. For example, a blockade could lead to retaliation against Chinese vessels in the Straits of Malacca and the South China Sea.

A third option would be to seize outlying Taiwanese islands like Quemoy. Taiwan administers dozens of islands, including some that are close to the Chinese coast. While Taiwan cannot prevent China from occupying some of these islands, none of these islands is vital to the Taiwanese economy.

A final option would be to assassinate Taiwan’s leadership and bring about a coup. China-friendly politicians can take power and arrange for Taiwan’s surrender to China. This option is a high-risk gamble for China because its success would depend on neutralizing Taiwan’s security forces, both military and police. This would be an extremely difficult feat.

The population of countries under attack tends to become angry, patriotic and support their government to stand up to the aggressor. Current examples of this are, of course, Ukraine and Iran, where the unpopular regime received widespread support in standing up to US aggression.

The military balance of power is also growing less favorable to China in its plans to invade Taiwan. Taiwan is making improvements in its defenses, inspired by Ukrainian resistance to Russian invasion. Japan and the Philippines are stepping up in the modernization of their armed forces. The Philippines, for example, has been acquiring several new naval vessels and is planning to acquire fighter jets from South Korea. Ukraine has developed new tactics for defending home territory. Ukrainian drones have proved effective against Russian ground forces and naval ships.

If Taiwan employs methods like Ukraine, Taiwanese maritime and ground forces would have an advantage defending the island.

For the next decade, Blair writes: “… favorable trends in hypersonic weapons, drone systems, electronic warfare and cyber warfare put the United States and its allies and partners in a strong position to deter China from an attack on Taiwan.”

According to geopolitical strategists like Blair, the competition between an authoritarian China and democratic regimes in the area like Japan, the Philippines and Taiwan will continue. But it will primarily be an economic and ideological contest, not a military one.

*      *      *

Email: [email protected]