DOH: Flattening of COVID-19 curve not yet certain

MANILA, Philippines — For the Department of Health (DOH), there is still no certainty yet if the epidemic curve of COVID-19 has already flattened.

According to Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, they avoid saying that the curve has flattened as this could lead to “complacency among the population.”

“It is really not yet certain. But with the indicators, we see that somehow the situation has improved. But we always say nothing is certain at this point,” she noted at a press briefing yesterday.

Vergeire made the statement in reaction to the declaration of the University of the Philippines – OCTA research group that the curve of COVID-19 in the country has flattened as evidenced by the declining number of new cases in the past days.

She added that for DOH, flattening the curve means “spreading the cases in a longer period of time so our health system would not be overwhelmed.”

“We want to see a longer period of time for the new cases being reported to us so that our health system can cope. That is the meaning of flattening the curve,” she said.

But the official admitted that there has been significant improvement in the country’s indicators of the epidemic, such as the reproduction rate, case-doubling time, mortality doubling time, and critical care utilization rate.

DOH data show that currently, the reproduction rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in the Philippines is at 0.977 while the case doubling time is at 10.3 days, and the mortality doubling time at 14.9 days.

On the other hand, the critical care utilization rate is pegged at an average of 50 percent nationwide.

“With these indicators, we can see that, somehow, the situation has improved… We can say that our strategies are working. Although not immediate, there have been changes,” Vergeire added.