MECQ over Metro Manila, nearby areas seen to prevent at least 50,000 COVID-19 cases
MANILA, Philippine — Researchers studying the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak said the reimposition of stricter community quarantine in and around Metro Manila for two weeks may reduce the projected number of infections by at least 50,000.
The UP OCTA research group projected that COVID-19 cases in the country could reach 220,000 by end-August if the capital region remains under general community quarantine.
But with the reimposition of MECQ over Metro Manila and nearby provinces, there could be 50,000 to 70,000 fewer cases.
“Now that we’re back to MECQ, we will save more than 50,000 new cases,” UP professor Ranjit Rye said at a Malacañang press briefing.
President Rodrigo Duterte approved placing Metro Manila, Laguna, Cavite and Rizal under MECQ from August 4 to August 18 as the country struggles to contain infections that soared to more than 103,000 cases with over 2,000 deaths. The Philippines has the second highest number of infections in Southeast Asia behind Indonesia.
The move came after dozens of doctors’ groups call to tighten movement restrictions and draw definitive plan after the renewed surge in cases overwhelmed the country’s health system.
Around 54% of the country's confirmed cases were from Metro Manila.
Rye said the MECQ will have a significant impact on reducing the transmission rate of the virus. To date, the country has a reproduction number—or how many people one confirmed cases may infect—of around 1.5.
The UP professor said the reproduction number could fall to 1 in 15 days. Ideally, the reproductive number should be below 1.
“Malaking bagay na po na nag-desisyon ang gobyerno kahit napakalaki ng cost nito. Doon pa lang malaki na ang impact sa R (reproduction number) kung paiigtingin pa ‘yung T3 (testing, tracing, treatment) at sasamahan ng matinding cooperation ng private sector and civil society ay walang kaduda duda in 15 days, babagsak ito to one,” Rye said.
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(The decision to [impose MECQ] is a big deal despite its huge cost. That will have significant impact on the reproduction number if testing, tracing and treatment will be strengthened coupled with cooperation between private sector and civil society.)
Rye also called on the public to stay at home and observe health protocols such as wearing of masks and physical distancing.
Heightened restrictions to MECQ from General Community Quarantine are, however, just part of the suggestions that medical professionals gave on Saturday when they asked for a return to an even stricter ECQ.
Philippine Medical Association president Jose Santiago said over the weekend that "the medical community appeals for a return to enhanced community quarantine in Mega Manila from August 1 to 15 to recalibrate strategies against COVID-19." He said the country's healthcare system has been overwhelmed by the pandemic.
"We propose the ECQ be used as a timeout to refine our pandemic control strategies addressing the following urgent conditions or problems: hospital workforce efficiency, failure of case finding and isolation, failure of contact tracing and quarantine, transportation safety, workplace safety, public compliance with self-protection, [and] social amelioration," he also said.
READ: Medical frontliners advise return to ECQ in Mega Manila until August 15
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