‘Consolidation’ of Duterte’s power seen after 2019 polls, but not without drawbacks
MANILA, Philippines — The upcoming May 2019 mid-term elections in the Philippines could see the Senate fill up with allies of President Rodrigo Duterte, a Fitch Group unit said, although such an outcome could pose downside risks to the system of checks and balances in the country.
Analysts at Fitch Solutions Macro Research said it’s likely that lawmakers aligned with the ruling Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan, or PDP-Laban, will dominate the Senate after next year’s poll, given that the opposition Liberal Party has been “weakened considerably.”
Fitch Solutions also said the detention of Sen. Leila De Lima and nullification of the amnesty granted for Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV—two of Duterte's staunchest critics in the Senate—might stifle the voice of the opposition as lawmakers could be deterred from speaking up against the president “out of fear.”
“In a political culture where loyalties easily evolve, we believe that there is a growing chance for Duterte-aligned policymakers to gain control of the Senate in the mid-term elections,” Fitch Solutions analysts said in a commentary dated September 5.
“The once-dominant opposition Liberal Party has been weakened considerably following the defection of dozens of its members to the ruling PDP-Laban party, and is struggling to even field a 12-person roster, according to Vice President Leni Robredo,” they added.
Last year, De Lima was arrested on drug charges that she said were part of a presidential vendetta. The former justice secretary turned lawmaker launched a Senate probe into alleged unlawful killings by the police under Duterte’s anti-narcotic campaign.
Before leaving the Philippines for Israel and later for Jordan last week, Duterte issued a proclamation ordering Trillanes’ arrest by voiding his amnesty given by former president Benigno Aquino III. The lawmaker claimed he is being persecuted for being critical of Duterte.
According to Fitch Solutions, Duterte's consolidation of power would be positive for the policy-making process and would facilitate his plan to move the country toward federalism, although recent opinion polls suggest amending the 1987 Constitution will not be a priority for most senators.
But the Fitch unit warned that while the policy-making process is likely to improve should Duterte's allies gain more seats in the Upper House, this would threaten the system of checks and balances in the Philippines.
Analysts at Fitch Solutions said they have already observed a decline in the freedom of press, while the ouster of Supreme Court Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno, who Duterte called his “enemy,” also cast doubts about the independence of the judiciary.
“The dominance of the executive branch poses a threat to the principles of separation of power and independence of each government body,” they said.
“Furthermore, Duterte appears to be allying with political heavyweights in the country like the Marcos family and former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to compensate for his shallow political network at the national level, and that may further entrench political dynasties in the country,” they added.
“This will likely limit political diversity within Philippine democracy over time.”
- Latest
- Trending
