After drought, brace for heavy rains

MANILA, Philippines – The strong El Niño that has triggered drought in many parts of the country since last year continues to wane, but state climatologists are warning of a possible La Niña episode, which will mean unusually heavy rains, in the second half of 2016.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) yesterday said El Niño continues to weaken in the tropical Pacific and a neutral condition is expected by mid-year.

Seventy-one provinces, mostly in Mindanao, remained affected by the dry spell or drought last month, PAGASA said in its latest report.

Since the El Niño started in March last year, the agriculture department has estimated the damage at P3.6 billion, with Mindanao being the hardest-hit area.

PAGASA said below to way below normal rainfall conditions are still expected over Luzon and Visayas this month, while significant portions of Mindanao are predicted to have near normal to above normal rainfall conditions.

La Niña watch

PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section officer-in-charge Anthony Lucero said there is an 80 percent chance of a La Niña occurrence this year.

La Niña refers to the abnormal cooling in the sea surface temperature (below -0.5 °C) over the tropical Pacific and is characterized by excessive rainfall.

“The possibility of a developing La Niña is favored during the second half of 2016. With this current state, La Niña Watch is now in effect,” PAGASA said in an advisory.

Lucero earlier said a strong El Niño is usually followed by an equally strong La Niña.

He cited the 1997-1998 strong El Niño, which was followed by a La Niña in 1999 when many parts of the country experienced intense rainfall and flooding.

The most tragic effect of the 1999 La Niña was the landslide at the Cherry Hills Subdivision in Barangay San Luis, Antipolo City that killed 58 people.

The last La Niña event was in 2012 when the Philippines experienced massive flooding due to days of intense rains brought by the southwest monsoon.