Iraq’s turn at people power?

If it worked in the Philippines in 1986 and in Indonesia in 1996, why can’t Iraqi people power topple the long entrenched dictator Saddam Hussein and avert a war in the Middle East?

This was the contention yesterday of a leader of the Iraqi opposition, Dr. Laith Kubba, in an audio-visual conference with members of academe and the press in Jakarta and Manila, from his base in Washington, DC.

Kubba said Saddam, who has been in power since 1979, has instilled fear in the Iraqis.

"But once this mindset is broken, they can act as one against Saddam Hussein and nobody can stop them. We can mobilize the people to bring down Saddam Hussein," Kubba predicted.

In February 1986, Filipinos rose up against dictator Ferdinand Marcos and ended his 20-year-old
regime. Ten years later, the Indonesians did the same to President Suharto.

Kubba refuted claims that Hussein is very popular in Iraq, saying there had been four coup attempts against the Iraq president and that 14 of 15 provinces had rebelled against him.

Saddam was "merciless in crushing all opposition, using chemical gas and killing hundreds of thousands of civilians," he said.

"Saddam was never elected by the people. Last October, he called a referendum. We thought it could be a way out of a war so we challenged him to hold a real election with international observers. He never answered our challenge, He knew he would be rejected by the people," the dissident said.

Kubba asserted that the Iraqis want an end to the regime of Saddam Hussein, "and they includes some members of his Cabinet."

He also said that once the first bullets of war are fired against the present regime, the armed forces would turn their guns on the dictator.

"The military in the past was loyal to him because they were beneficiaries of his generosity. But now, he has no money to give things like brand new cars to high military officials. There are no benefits for the military, only risks," Kubba explained.

At the same time, he criticized some members of the Iraqi opposition for giving the impression that Saddam could be ousted only with international assistance.

He admitted getting a bit disillusioned that the opposition in his country did not appear to have fighting spirit, and that Iraqi oppositionists appealing for international assistance are giving the impression that they could not oust Saddam on their own.

Kubba, however, believes that the United States will play a pivotal role in post-Saddam Iraq. He lauded the US for committing to help rebuild Iraq after excising the dictator, even if it takes three years.

"The US has committed not only to knock down Saddam Hussein but also to help Iraq get back on its feet," he said, while noting that the details of this commitment have yet to be ironed out.

He said that Iraq after Saddam would still be politically weak, and there are fears that there would be infighting among the various opposition groups for supremacy.

"And the Iraqi armed forces might be a part of the new government should they go against Saddam Hussein and negotiate with the United States," he said.

Kubba also believed that post-Saddam Iraq could still be threatened by its neighboring countries, Turkey and Iran.

"Turkey would not be happy if the Kurds are given more autonomy and powers. Iran would not be happy if there is democracy in Iraq," he explained.

While he believes Iraq needs US help and presence in the immediate years after the ouster of Saddam for Baghdad’s security and territorial integrity, Iraqis should remain sovereign and not be under the US or United Nations’ mandate.