Key indicators show improvement in first quarter - NSCB

MANILA, Philippines –  The country’s key economic indicators improved in the first quarter of the year albeit still in negative territory, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) reported yesterday.

According to the country’s policy-making and coordination board on statistical matters, the country’s composite leading economic indicator (LEI) moved up to 0.012 percent from a revised negative 0.031 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.

The NSCB said this indicates that the economic momentum that started in the fourth quarter of 2009 would be sustained in the first quarter of 2011.

In computing the LEI, the NSCB said seven positive contributors outnumbered the negative indicators.

The number of positive contributors as concurrently estimated totaled to seven just like in the fourth quarter of last year.

The positive contributors included total merchandise imports, foreign exchange rate, wholesale price index, stock price index, terms of trade index, number of new businesses and tourist arrivals.

The combined share of positive contributors for this quarter increased to 55.2 percent from 44.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010.

On the other hand, the negative contributors accounted for 44.8 percent of the total LEI.

The negative contributors include the consumer price index, money supply, hotel occupancy rate and electric energy consumption.

The NSCB said that the consumer price index remains the biggest drag on the LEI.

Leading by 10 quarters, the CPI that skyrocketed in the third quarter 2008 during the early period of the global financial crisis leads the indicators that pulled down the composite LEI in the first quarter of the year, the NSCB said.

The negative contributors accounted for 44.8 percent of total contribution.

The LEI, which measures the contribution of each of the 11 indicators, is measured through the combined effects of the direction such as the slope or change of the cycle component of each indicator and the correlation of their cycle components with that of the reference series.

Last year, the economy grew by 7.3 percent, its fastest growth since democracy was restored in the country in 1986.

From a strong start of 7.8 percent in the first quarter of 2010, the economy grew 8.2 percent in the second quarter, 6.3 percent in the third quarter and 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter.

This year, the government expects the economy to grow by 7 percent to 8 percent.