Ginebra untouchable at no. 1

There’s a chance that two teams will end the PBA Philippine Cup bubble eliminations with identical 8-3 records, tying for first place. But no matter what happens, Barangay Ginebra will hold on to pole position by virtue of a superior quotient. If Phoenix defeats Rain or Shine tonight, the Super LPG Fuel Masters will rise to 8-3 and tie Ginebra's mark.

Today marks the final schedule of the elims, a quadrupleheader with Terrafirma (1-9) against NLEX (4-6), Meralco (6-4) against NorthPort (1-9), Magnolia (6-4) against Blackwater (2-8) and Phoenix (7-3) against ROS (6-4). In a two-way tie for first, the quotient system or simply the winner-over-the-other rule will decide the ranking order. Since Ginebra downed Phoenix by 15 in the elims, the ranking will be No. 1 Ginebra and No. 2 Phoenix with both enjoying a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarterfinals.

Believe it or not, a seven-team logjam for second place will ensue if Phoenix bows to ROS, Meralco repulses NorthPort and Magnolia turns back Blackwater tonight. That will put TNT, Phoenix, SMB, Meralco, Magnolia, Alaska and ROS in a tie for second with identical 7-4 records. It's a testament to the PBA's emerging parity that seven teams could wind up with identical records at the end of the elims. The deadlock will be broken by the quotient system. In terms of plus and minus factors, here is how the seven teams stand at the moment (with the result of Phoenix vs. ROS still unknown): TNT +40, Phoenix +5, SMB -3, Alaska -6, ROS -6, Meralco -14 and Magnolia -16. The order is critical because only the top four overall will earn a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarters. If ROS beats Phoenix by nine, for example, the Painters improve to +3 and the Fuel Masters drop to -4. That would put TNT at No. 2, SMB at No. 3 and Phoenix at No. 4.

There’s also a chance that five teams will wind up with identical 7-4 records in a tie for third. That will happen if Phoenix, Meralco and Magnolia win today. In this case, the rankings will be: TNT +27, SMB +8, Meralco -3, Alaska -15 and Magnolia -17. TNT and SMB will then join Ginebra and Phoenix with a twice-to-beat advantage in the quarters. If Phoenix wins but Meralco and Magnolia lose tonight, there will be a three-way tie for third with TNT, Alaska and SMB. In this scenario, TNT (+24) will take No. 3, Alaska (-9) No. 4 and SMB (-15) No. 5.

Only the standings from No. 2 to No. 8 are in doubt with the eight quarterfinal teams confirmed. NLEX, Terrafirma, NorthPort and Blackwater have been eliminated and will exit the bubble before the start of the playoffs. Under conference rules, only a tie for eighth place is to be settled by a playoff. All other ties are to be determined by the quotient system. If a playoff were necessary, it would've been scheduled tomorrow.