Do or die

Coach Alex Compton has led Alaska to three Finals in the last four PBA conferences, never making it all the way to the throne and winding up the habitual bridesmaid. In those three Finals, the Aces were foiled by nemesis San Miguel Beer.

Compton came tantalizingly close to bagging the crown in

Alaska’s last Finals appearance in the previous conference, losing the best-of-seven series in Game 7. The Aces blew a 3-0 advantage and dropped four straight in a tailspin that was one for the books.

Now, in the ongoing Commissioner’s Cup, San Miguel has been eliminated and the Beermen will no longer be in the way of either Meralco or Alaska in the Finals. Rain Or Shine was first to the Finals. Tonight, the Aces and Bolts slug it out one more time to determine the Elasto Painters’ adversary in the Last Dance.

Meralco has never made it to the Finals since breaking into the PBA in 2010. For coach Norman Black, it will be a triumphant return to the title playoffs after a long wait if the Bolts advance. Black’s last championship came with Talk ‘N’ Text in the 2011-12 Philippine Cup and he’s hoping to end a drought of nine conferences. Experience is clearly on his side in the battle of tacticians. Black, 58, has captured 11 PBA titles in all, nine with San Miguel and one each with Sta. Lucia Realty and TNT. The former Detroit Piston from St. Joseph’s was also responsible for leading Ateneo to five straight UAAP senior men’s championships so winning is in his DNA.

Compton, 42, took over the Alaska helm from Luigi Trillo two games into the 2014 Governors Cup and has been at the forefront of the Aces’ “We Not Me” movement. From what he’s shown so far as a coach, it’s just a matter of time before Compton claims his first PBA crown.

More than Compton’s drive for a first title, what has captured the imagination of PBA fans this conference was Meralco’s transformation from a doormat to a championship contender. Who would’ve thought that Meralco could bounce back from a 1-10 record in the Philippine Cup to a No. 2 seeding in the next conference? It took that old Black magic to put Meralco a win away from the Finals. Compton, however, will try to break that spell in the deciding Game 5 of the semifinal series between the Aces and Bolts at the Smart Araneta Coliseum tonight.

Pace has been the story of the duel so far. Alaska likes to play up-and-down while Meralco prefers the slowdown style to take advantage of import Arinze Onuaku’s size. Curiously, the only stat that has been the barometer of a win or loss in the series is fastbreak points. In Game 1 which Alaska won, 97-94, the Aces had more fastbreak points, 18-8. In Game 2 which Meralco won, 92-87, the Bolts had more fastbreak points, 18-16. In Game 3 which Alaska won, 92-72, the Aces had more fastbreak points, 8-6. And in Game 4 which Meralco won, 86-70, the Bolts had more fastbreak points, 13-8. So the indication is the team that is able to consistently outrun the other to the basket will win tonight. That means grabbing more rebounds or creating more turnovers or both.

In the last two games, defense has been a critical factor. In Game 3, Alaska limited Meralco to 35 percent shooting from the floor and 72 points. In Game 4, it was the reverse as Meralco held Alaska to 33 percent shooting from the field and 70 points.

Alaska is No. 1 in the league in forcing opponents’ turnovers and Meralco can attest to it. In every game of the semifinals, the Bolts had more turnovers than Alaska. Meralco is averaging 20.5 turnovers compared to Alaska’s 15. What has kept the Bolts alive is their rebounding dominance. Meralco has outrebounded Alaska in three of the four games. In Game 4, the Bolts lorded it over the boards, 50-39.

Onuaku is usually not matched up against Alaska’s import Rob Dozier. But in crucial situations, they’ll find themselves in face-to-face combat. Their efficiency has a major impact on the game. In Game 4, for instance, Onuaku had four assists and two turnovers while Dozier, no assist and four turnovers.

Black made a glaring adjustment in his starting five for Game 4. Jared Dillinger was tapped to start only for the second time this conference and delivered 17 points in a standout performance. Black also reinstated Bryan Faundo as a starter and the undrafted journeyman responded with a conference-high 12 points. Meralco’s big lineup assured the Bolts of dominating the interior which proved to be a key element in Black’s attack.

In Game 3, Black played a small lineup to counter Alaska’s pressure defense, opting for more ballhandlers and that took away Meralco’s advantage in size, particularly with Dillinger in the wings. The Aces capitalized on their quick guards to bamboozle Meralco by 20 points. In Game 4, Black stuck to his strength, went big and smothered the Aces with size to win by 16.

The last two games were blowouts but it won’t be the case in Game 5 tonight. It’ll be a dogfight, reminiscent of the fierce battles in Games 1 and 2. Alaska is shooting for a third straight Finals appearance, this time without San Miguel waiting in ambush while Meralco is out to make history with its first-ever advance to the Last Dance. The team that dictates the tempo and overpowers the other with its style of play will come out the winner. Which team that will be is anybody’s guess.