The fight destined to make history

MANILA, Philippines - No doubt about it, if ever Manny Pacquiao faces Floyd Mayweather Jr. in the ring, the fight will set a new record for pay-per-view buys and earn for both protagonists their richest payday.

With little excitement being generated in the heavier divisions, fans are finding the fireworks in the highly-competitive welterweight class the main reason why boxing is still an attraction in the stadium, on TV and in closed-circuit theaters.

It is inevitable that Pacquiao and Mayweather will cross paths. Pretty Boy was the world’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter before he took a self-imposed leave of absence for nearly two years. With Mayweather out of action, Pacquiao took over the throne and isn’t about to give it up. 

When Mayweather returned to the ring, he used a lame excuse to avoid an engagement with Pacquiao. He called for Olympic-style random drug testing, which isn’t required by state athletic commissions, and accused Pacquiao of taking performance-enhancing drugs to preserve his speed and power moving from one weight category to another. Pacquiao sued Mayweather in court for the defamation and it looks like he’s got Pretty Boy hemmed in. 

How ironic that with the Mayweather family’s history of drugs, Pretty Boy is now playing Mr. Righteous. The suspicion is Mayweather used the drug bogey to camouflage his unwillingness to risk staining his unblemished record in a fight against Pacquiao. His 42-0 record is Mayweather’s only claim to superhuman status and a loss will turn him into a mere mortal. Surely, the probability of losing to Pacquiao was a daunting notion.

Then came Pacquiao’s third fight against Juan Manuel Marquez last month. Pacquiao failed to drop Marquez like he did in their first two encounters but still did enough to squeeze out a majority 12-round decision. The computer punch stats clearly showed Pacquiao had the edge in workrate and connections. Still, it was a close contest – something that Mayweather might view as a sign of Pacquiao slowing down, a cue to sign up for a showdown.

 Boxing News writer Daniel Herbert said Pacquiao’s win kept alive hopes for a duel with Mayweather next year. “Mayweather was absent but will surely have noticed how Marquez’ skill put him on the brink of a huge upset until he ran out of gas,” said Herbert.  Pacquiao said it was a blessing in disguise that the fight was closer than expected. Now, Mayweather thinks the probability of losing to Pacquiao isn’t a terrifying proposition. Now, he thinks he has more than an even chance of winning.

Pacquiao said he’s willing to fight anyone within a reasonable weight difference – if the price is right. And obviously, the only one who can deliver the largest paycheck in the horizon is Mayweather. It’s the classic match-up of good versus evil, of a king taking on a former king out to regain the throne. While Pacquiao is everyone’s hero, Mayweather is public enemy No. 1. “It’s easy to hate Mayweather,” said Chris Mannix in Sports Illustrated. “He relishes the role of villain and slips into it as easily as a WWE character … he surrounds himself with a small army of sycophants whose roles range from financial adviser to guy-who-brings-him-his-suit. All of them parrot his message – all roads lead to Floyd – and stroke his ego.”

Pacquiao recently said the fight against Mayweather is almost a done deal. “It’s 80 to 90 percent sure,” he said. Negotiations are hush-hush but the world knows talks are ongoing. Pacquiao said he’s waiting for Mayweather to sign up. Drug-testing isn’t an issue. Apparently, the only thing to be ironed out is the slicing of the pie. Pacquiao hinted that he’s agreeable to a 50-50 split with a guarantee of $50 Million each. In Pacquiao’s last fight against Marquez, he was guaranteed $22 Million. 

The pay-per-view record is 2.4 million registered in Mayweather’s fight against Oscar de la Hoya in 2007. Pacquiao has raked in at least a million pay-per-view hits in five bouts so far against De la Hoya, Miguel Cotto, Antonio Margarito, Sugar Shane Mosley and the third Marquez outing. A showdown with Mayweather would easily bring in three million pay-per-view subscriptions.

Mayweather’s adviser Leonard Ellerbe said Pretty Boy has booked May 5 for a fight in Las Vegas. It’s the Cinco de Mayo holiday in Mexico and the date falls on a Saturday. There was speculation that Mayweather planned to fight WBC lightwelterweight champion Erik Morales, not Pacquiao. Morales confirmed he was casually asked by Golden Boy chief executive officer Richard Schaefer a week before the Pacquiao-Marquez fight if he would face Mayweather. He replied, “Why not?” Since that brief exchange, Morales said he hasn’t been contacted again about the possibility.

Mayweather declared that he wants recognition as the world’s No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter once more. “We only want to fight the biggest and the best out there and Manny Pacquiao, yes, you’re next,” he said.

Schaefer said, “They really don’t care much for each other. They don’t need to be buddies. Even during the promotion, I’m sure there will probably be harsh words, some dialogue. That should make for some interesting story lines. But that should not – in any way, shape or form – be a reason that one of history’s biggest fights doesn’t happen.”

Former superfeatherweight champion and Nonito Donaire’s trainer Robert Garcia said if the fight materializes, Pacquiao will prevail because Mayweather is too defensive. “I will pick Pacquiao to win … just throwing five punches to one and winning on points,” said Garcia. “But maybe, not landing all of them but just like Donaire against Omar Narvaez where he just threw five times more punches than Narvaez. He didn’t do a lot of damage but just outlanding him was the difference. I could see Pacquiao winning over Mayweather that way. But Mayweather does have power and when he lands, he lands good. So it could be a good fight. It will be interesting to see Mayweather and Pacquiao and it’s not too easy to pick a winner. But I will say Pacquiao by a decision in kind of a boring fight.”

Whether it will be boring or not depends on Mayweather. Pacquiao will certainly come to fight and try to give the fans their money’s worth. If Mayweather is just out to collect a paycheck, he’ll avoid a toe-to-toe confrontation and dance the night away. It could be a repeat of the Donaire-Narvaez yawner. If Pacquiao has his way, however, it will be a fight to remember – a battle to unify the WBC/WBO welterweight titles and decide who deserves to be on top of the world’s pound-for-pound ratings.