A war with no end?

It is impossible for someone interested in geopolitics like me not to contribute personal insights on the crisis occurring in the Middle East. The sudden decision of Trump to bomb Iran has caught the world flat footed and dealt the global economy a serious blow.

With the dramatic increase in crude oil prices, what will follow are drastic increases in fuel oils, power costs, petrochemicals and fertilizers. Like the rest of the world, I have two questions in mind. The first is why did Trump suddenly decide to start bombing Iran after he previously said that the United States had already “obliterated” Iran’s capability to build nuclear weapons. The second question is how will this all end?

I am not the only writer that has tried to answer these two questions. Therefore, some of my answers may be similar to those of other geopolitical writers. However, these are my personal insights and conclusions.

The first question is what made Trump start bombing Iran. Remember at that time there was an ongoing meeting between US and Iranian delegates to try and find an agreement that would guarantee that Iran would not continue any nuclear program.

I personally thought that the meeting was going well and that there would be a successful conclusion. Like other observers, we were all surprised when Trump called it off and sent the entire might of the US Armed Forces to again “obliterate” Iran’s military and naval forces. This was done without consultation with any ally except with Netanyahu and Israel. Trump’s initial media messages were puzzling to me and other observers. He said he launched the attack because he had a “feeling” that Iran was going to strike the United States. The source of this “feeling” was his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. There was no intelligence information cited and the source of his “feeling” was not any believable personality in the world of intelligence. Obviously, this was not the real reason.

A recent survey in the United States said that the majority of American voters believe that the real cause of the attack on Iran was to distract attention away from the Epstein files which is said to have damning revelations about several prominent personalities having affairs with teenage girls in Epstein’s resort island. There is constant speculation that Donald Trump is mentioned several times in the Epstein files.

Another reason may be that in the midterm elections in the United States in November this year, the Democratic Party will win majority of the seats in the House of Representatives and might even win the majority in the Senate. Even Trump himself has said that if the Democrats win a majority in the House, he will be impeached.

In another statement, the Trump administration said that they believe that Israel was going to start bombing Iran and that the US decided to join because Iran was bound to retaliate. I personally believe that this attack was a joint decision of the US and Israeli governments.

Perhaps the real reason for the attack was a combination of all these statements. However, in another very recent declaration, Trump said: “When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.” When he refers to “we,” he is referring only to the oil companies who will benefit from the dramatic increase in oil prices and perhaps the Trump administration who will benefit from the increase from taxes.

Certainly, the citizens all over the world will have nothing to gain since they will all suffer from increases in prices of oil products like gasoline and inflation in all commodities.

How will all this end? We can only surmise some scenarios. The best-case scenario is that Trump will immediately end all the bombing and declare victory. Iran, which has suffered severe losses, will also end all hostilities while they try to recoup and regroup from their losses. The world, however, will not immediately go back to normal since oil prices after they increase have a tendency not to go down. The worst-case scenario is that Trump will believe that he has too much at stake and will force a regime change in Iran or force them to an unconditional surrender. However, this will mean a direct invasion of Iran and direct fighting between two armed forces. Iran is a big country with a population of 90 million and will not be easily subdued, if it can be done at all. This will mean thousands of casualties and prolonged shortage of oil, aside from drastic price increases.

The most probable scenario will be found somewhere in between the two scenarios. Hopefully, the end will see a scenario closer to the best-case scenario, rather than the worst case.

Trump’s stated goal at the beginning of this war was regime change. He probably thought that since he succeeded in Venezuela, that he could do the same in Iran. But Iran seems to have been prepared with several layers of succession planning.

At this date, the US government does not seem to know what will be its end goal. Even some members of the Republican Party are already saying that this is a war that has no objective in mind.

I believe that this war will end very badly for the United States. We can only hope that a weakened American Armed Forces will not serve as a temptation for China to invade Taiwan.