The Philippines in the US-China conflict

It is not farfetched to say that the next world war could start not in Ukraine but in East Asia. Conflict between the West and Russia is ultimately lopsided because in terms of military and economic strength, the United States and Western Europe have overwhelming advantage over Russia.

If we look elsewhere, specifically to Asia, the balance of power is more evenly distributed as China is on its way to becoming a bigger economy than the United States in the next one or two decades.

The Philippines will be embroiled in this conflict whether you like it or not because of its geographic location. Our nation’s western shorelines border the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) which is the center of the conflict between different nations. For any person that wants to be a serious student in understanding the nature of these potential conflicts, I would suggest some readings.

The first is The South China Sea: The Struggle for Power in Asia by Bill Hayton, Yale University Press, 2014. The author is a journalist with extensive experience in the region. His book tries to make the reader understand the complex history and contemporary reality of the West Philippine Sea (WPS)/South China Sea (SCS). He examines the high stakes involved for China, Taiwan, United States, Vietnam, the Philippines and the rest of Southeast Asia as well as India, Russia and the wider world. In his Introduction, he writes: “Will China’s rise lead to conflict between the superpowers? Does the Chinese leadership intend to play by the rules of the international game or challenge them? Does the United States have the will to stand its ground? Will the countries of Southeast Asia win or lose from superpower competition? How has the hunt for hydrocarbons affected the conflict? Above all, what will prevent war from ever breaking out? How could the resources of the Sea be equitably shared among hundreds of millions of mostly poor people living around its shores?”

The book begins with the history of the SCS and the countries around it from prehistory to 1995. There is also a chapter devoted to maps and lines. One critical observation that in all the maps, the Philippines occupies a strategic location.

One very interesting chapter for Filipino readers is the story of Tomas Cloma, who actually is responsible for making the Philippines the de facto owner of the islands in the SCS. Even today, Cloma is often described in the Philippines as the man who “discovered the islands.” Cloma was from Bohol who worked in the shipping department of the Manila Bulletin newspaper. He wrote about shipping movements by day and studied law by night. He passed the Bar in 1941. After the Second World War in 1947, Cloma with some friends formed the Visayan Fish Corporation. He also set up the Philippine Maritime Institute offering three-month courses.

Eventually, Cloma issued the so-called Freedom Land Charter declaring the Spratly Islands and the surrounding area as independent nation.

Eventually, Cloma was required to sign over Freedom Land to the Philippine government, which renamed the territory the Kalayaan Islands since this was the Tagalog word for “freedom.”

In 1978, Kalayaan was decreed as a municipality of Palawan province. The more complete version of the Cloma story is in the book.

The rest of the book focuses on attempts to settle the disputes peacefully. However, after all these years, the possibility of peaceful settlement has become a distant dream. China has forcefully taken over territories, claiming that the SCS is their territory in defiance of international law, which awarded parts of these to the Philippines.

The next book I recommend is Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific by Robert D. Kaplan, Random House, 2014.

The Foreign Policy magazine a decade ago named Kaplan as one of the world’s top 100 Global Thinkers. In this book, the author offers a vivid snapshot of the nations surrounding the WPS/SCS: the conflicts both existing and potential in the region from the dawn of the 21st century to the present; and the implications for global peace and stability.

Since this book was published ten years ago, much of the data regarding the different nations and their leaders have changed. However, the geopolitical situation has not changed and has even become more politically tense. One of the interesting chapters is the one entitled “China’s Caribbean.” It should be noted that the United States tried to impose its will on the Caribbean Sea and the nations in that geographic region. This is primarily dictated by the fact that the Caribbean borders American territory. But it should be further noted that the United States, after various attempts, failed in its efforts to subjugate the nations around the Caribbean. In fact, Cuba has remained as the strongest opponent of the United States in the western hemisphere.

To this day, China claims indisputable sovereignty over the SCS against international rulings that have recognized the claim of Vietnam over the Paracels and that of the Philippines in the Spratlys. The imperialist ambitions of China in the SCS is similar to the imperialist ambitions of the United States in the Caribbean Sea. If one can learn from history, then both ambitions are doomed to fail.

Asia’s Cauldron is a very readable book that could serve as an indispensable guide to this part of the world that will affect the lives of people in all corners of the world for decades to come.

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