Party’s over, again?

Just as infectious disease experts and the OCTA Research Group have warned, COVID cases are on the rise again, at around the time that they said this would happen.

OCTA’s number cruncher, University of the Philippines math professor Guido David, said the infection numbers and positivity rate are indicating not just the “weak surge” that his group projected, but a possible strong surge.

And he concedes that the severity could be underreported, since people are no longer undergoing RT-PCR test – the only kind recorded by the Department of Health – unless the symptoms are moderate to serious.

All factors considered, actual infections could be 10 times higher than what is recorded, Guido told us on One News’ “The Chiefs” last Monday, when the Department of Health raised the possibility of Metro Manila and several other areas reverting to Alert Level 2 because of rising infections.

So will the parties, now resuming with lax masking, be over again?

Thanks to vaccinations and the natural immunity from infections (3.69 million total confirmed COVID cases in the country as of June 13), we developed a wall of immunity against the deadly coronavirus.

But that wall is being chipped away as both natural and vaccine immunities wane, and people ignore calls to get boosters.

The highly infectious Omicron and its subvariants have managed to penetrate vaccine defenses, but the breakthrough cases are generally asymptomatic or mild and hospitalizations are rare.

Still, such mild breakthrough cases can infect the vulnerable elderly and immunocompromised, who can develop life-threatening infections, especially if they are unvaccinated.

And we don’t know how Omicron will affect unvaccinated children. I know the variant can infect even pets. Someone I know caught Omicron earlier this year and infected some members of the household, plus their three pet cats (tested and confirmed for COVID by a vet).

The humans were either mild or asymptomatic and recovered quickly under home isolation. But the poor cats just became progressively weaker and thinner, and eventually the Persian and a mixed breed died. Only the puspin survived.

So if you catch Omicron but are asymptomatic and isolating only at home, stay away from everyone especially the seniors and babies in the household plus the cats and dogs.

*      *      *

In the meantime, people are now wondering if Alert Level 2 would reduce the 100 percent capacity everywhere, since health experts are reiterating their call to maintain distancing protocols.

Several private enterprises are ending hybrid work arrangements this week and requiring all employees to return to onsite work.

The government and private sector are also preparing for the full return of face-to-face classes when the school year starts in a few weeks.

Because of the fuel crisis, a stronger COVID surge is possible. The risk of viral spread starts as soon as employees and students take public transport.

The Metropolitan Manila Development Authority has recorded a drop in vehicle density along EDSA, the capital’s busiest thoroughfare. The MMDA has attributed this to fewer mass transport vehicles while at the same time, private car owners are opting to commute because of the dizzying fuel price hikes.

Public utility vehicle drivers and operators are going on prolonged holidays or changing livelihoods altogether amid the prospect of a protracted fuel crisis. The result is fewer PUVs on the road. Harried commuters are willing to be packed like sardines into a jeepney just to get to their destination on time.

PUV drivers have lamented that even if passengers are allowed to ride on the jeepney roof as is done in rural areas and the main cabin is packed for every trip, fuel costs will still make the day’s earnings not worth the toil.

Monthly ayuda and the P1 minimum fare hike aren’t enough. The biggest problem is the fuel price, which the government can actually reduce through a tax cut, but which it won’t do.

*      *      *

The government’s defense is that the wealthy, being the biggest fuel consumers, will be the main beneficiaries of a fuel tax cut. With 40 percent of the population poor and the middle class groaning from inflation, I don’t get the logic of that argument. The poor are the ones who are feeling the heaviest burden of the fuel price surge and need relief soonest.

These are the same sectors forced to take mass transport, even at the risk of catching breakthrough COVID. Given the choice of possible death or debilitation through COVID or death from hunger, they will see coronavirus infection as the lesser evil – and keep packing like sardines into jeepneys so they can put food on the table.

Infectious disease experts have stressed that the odds of death through hunger are so much lower than the odds of succumbing to COVID or its complications (60,461 confirmed COVID deaths as of June 13). This argument (combined with the heavy hand of the Duterte administration) helped promote public cooperation in the pandemic lockdowns as well as compliance with masking and distancing.

But seeing the economic tsunami spawned by the lockdowns (plus the country’s bottom ranking in the Bloomberg COVID resilience ranking), the government gradually eased restrictions while ramping up vaccinations. Today 100 percent capacity is allowed all around.

There has been a lot of talk about COVID becoming endemic, like dengue, and people needing to dance with the coronavirus, to borrow a phrase from the early stage of the pandemic.

Most people believe neither the outgoing nor the incoming administration can afford to order a return to lockdowns, regardless of the pandemic situation. So people have become complacent, ditching physical distancing, masking, respiratory and hand hygiene.

Only people traumatized by COVID death and long-term debilitation are still strictly complying with pandemic safety protocols.

Let’s hope stopping the complacency will not require more deaths and debilitation.

Lives and livelihoods can be saved in the time of COVID, through continued adherence to safety protocols particularly masking, vaccination and boosters. Public health and the economy need not be mutually exclusive.