Requiem

One day Filipinos might yet be persuaded to cut up an already fragmented, dynastic and tribalistic country into federated regions.

But this is increasingly looking more remote under the Duterte administration as even the government’s economic team and business groups warn that a rush to federalism could wreak havoc on an already decelerating economy.

Some Malacañang officials are hoping that the next surveys will show increased public awareness if not acceptance of the proposed change in the system of government as a result of the “pepedederalismo” video.

At this point, however, when some people are wondering when the streets of tiny Singapore became federated, it looks like certain senators have a more accurate reading of the public pulse: it’s requiem time for federalism.

Even President Duterte, whose unexciting third State of the Nation Address was notable for his tepid mention of federalism, must be realizing this. In public, he can’t abruptly drop something that he has been touting almost like a cure-all for the country’s ills. But in private, surely he’s astute enough to see that he’s better off expending political capital on other advocacies.

Trouble brews for federalism even in his rubberstamp House of Representatives, where the new Speaker has thumbed down no elections (and therefore term extensions) in 2019 and endorsed separate voting for the two chambers – both anathema to the HOR super majority – in case Congress decides to convene as a constituent assembly. The HOR doesn’t like this type of con-ass, where most senators can’t be expected to vote for the demise of their own positions.

Most damaging of all (the jury’s still out, the Palace says, on the impact of pepedederalismo) are the warnings expressed by the President’s chief economist, finance and budget secretaries, and now backed by all the major business groups, about the risks posed by federalism to the economy and the fiscal health of the government.

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With businessmen and economists jumping into the fray, the campaign for the shift to federalism, complicated to begin with, now faces stiff competition from those who are spreading the word about why it’s bad news for the Philippines.

Dangling wealthy superpower the United States as an example isn’t working, with critics noting that federalism works best for large countries like the US, such as Brazil, Malaysia and Russia. The Philippines is just slightly bigger in land area than the US state of Arizona; Texas is two times bigger than the Philippines.

Federalism has been proposed in China, but opponents of the proposal in that country fear that it might encourage secession. Similar fears have been raised in our country, but the consultative committee approved a preamble in the federal charter that creates a “permanent and indissoluble” federation – meaning, according to Concom chairman Reynato Puno, that secession is not an option.

At this point, it’s uncertain that the debates will even reach that no-secession issue before the proposed shift is buried by midterm election fever.

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Lawmakers are now busy with realignments following the dramatic fall from grace of Pantaleon Alvarez, the comeback of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and the emergence of the new person to watch, the President’s daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte-Carpio.

The lawmakers are also engaged in a rare fight with Malacañang over the cash-based budgeting system that the executive has proposed for 2019. Budget Secretary Benjamin Diokno, who calls the shift “revolutionary,” said the new system would reduce underspending and speed up the implementation of projects and programs earmarked for the fiscal year. In case the impasse persists and the budget is reenacted, Diokno has vowed to put fund utilization under a tight rein.

With the elections approaching, lawmakers are busy raising funds for their campaigns. Popular candidates can get contributions from supporters, but others resort to illegal fund raising such as jueteng, armed robbery, kidnapping for ransom and yes, drug trafficking.

Apart from raising funds, politicians in this country must also worry about their safety from assassination. When hired guns can be contracted for as low as P100,000 – less than a tenth of the cost of a mid-priced SUV – murder becomes an attractive tool for eliminating rivals.

With those concerns in mind, you can’t expect lawmakers to make a determined push for Charter change to shift to federalism. Especially with the clamor from the economic managers and business community growing louder. Yesterday, 19 groups backed economic managers and the statement of seven major business groups, cautioning Congress against a hasty shift to federalism.

Speaker Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, an economist herself whose presidency also saw the rejection of Cha-cha through a people’s initiative, cannot turn a deaf ear to those messages. Even her former student and designated counter-inflation point man, Albay Rep. Joey Salceda, admitted recently to “The Chiefs” on One News that the country is several years away from being ready for federalism.

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I’ve listened to the federalism proponents, among them former chief justice Puno and Concom member Aquilino “Nene” Pimentel Jr., the father of devolution in this country. I’m going through a book on federalism that was sent to me by Pimentel’s party the PDP-Laban. You can read an enormous amount of stuff about this complex topic and realize that there’s still more to learn.

Some years ago I went to Switzerland for briefings on their federal system and constitutional change. This is a country much smaller than the Philippines where federalism has worked. Like the Germans, however, the Swiss have a different culture and their institutions are much stronger than what we have in our country.

Among the major misgivings of Filipinos in overhauling the Constitution for federalism is that it is a purely self-serving exercise for the politicians in charge of the shift, and who will be the same folks serving in a federal system. How much real change can there be in this?

That embarrassingly chaotic joint opening session of Congress last month compounded those misgivings. The pepedederalismo video might have increased public awareness if not of the concept then at least the term “federalism.” But the statements issued by the economic managers and business community are the strongest arguments yet against this idea.

With consumer prices spiraling, the economy slowing down, the peso at its weakest and elections approaching, the administration can’t afford to ignore the red flags.

One day the country might be ready for a change in the system of government. At this time, however, federalism is on a slow procession to the graveyard.