May 2010: No cha-cha and no Gloria

Nothing could be more clear. Even without the recent Social Weather Stations survey that found 66 percent of Filipinos, or two out of every three of them, want no term extensions for officials, every Juan, Pedro and Tomas cannot stomach more of the same.

And when we say the same, the most obvious point of reference is none other that the president herself, Gloria Arroyo. Her years of failing to lift herself up in the acceptance ratings have been so consistent it is impossible they could have been manipulated.

One can always go around and devise his own means of finding out. Without the surveys, one can simply ask the neighbors or visit relatives. One may even talk to strangers. And clearly the consensus is — enough of Arroyo.

Look, many if not most of the charges against Arroyo have never been proven. A few were clearly fabricated by irrespressible critics. Unfortunately for her, she is president of a country where perception is king.

Say one thing about Arroyo, or anybody else for that matter, and the moment it gets around, you yourself would not be able to recognize it because then it shall have assumed a life of its own, totally different from when it was first born.

Not that Arroyo is a saint. Far from it. When she lied to the nation years ago when she promised not to go beyond the unfinished term of her ousted predecessor, the nation knew at once that they were dealing with somebody who was not an angel.

And that is the cross she must bear forever. Each time Arroyo beats her breast to say she is not seeking any term extension, by whatever means, its effect on the people is only to convince them that she in fact does want a term extension.

The facts are in favor of that notion. She has committed a lot of sins, real or otherwise, that, again real or otherwise, the perception is she needs to stay in power lest she gets captured by a lynching mob.

The Constitution prohibits Arroyo from seeking another term. But that refers only to a direct election. Filipinos, always ingenious and creative, have long since found loopholes in the constitutional prohibition.

One is to introduce amendments to the charter, such as shifting from a presidential form of government to a parliamentary one. If that happens, Arroyo can then run for parliament and, once there, get herself elected as prime minister.

But that is only provided she is able to retain enough support in parliament, which is not expected to have any new faces. Most would be the same members of the old Congress who have long been known to be her staunch allies.

 But the perception is she has managed to retain support in Congress, or specifically the House of Representatives, only because of her generosity with largesse, which in turn comes only with her in power.

Indeed, those who believe there is no way Arroyo can return to power by whatever means have started keeping their distance, ready to dump her in favor of any newcomer who may emerge from the horizon.

But that is the way it is in the Philippines. And if her opponents and half-hearted allies have started preparing for any eventualities and contingencies, Arroyo is exactly not that dumb not to be doing the same, if not better.

So until May 2010 swings around and we know for a fact what will happen then, we really do not know what will happen. My hunch however is that there will be no constitutional changes, and we will have a new president other than Arroyo.