Will the country’s airlines go under?

The coronavirus pandemic is sounding the death knell on airlines around the world. Layoffs and requests for bailouts are spreading just as fast as the virus.

Airlines are caught in a turbulence so severe -- perhaps the most dangerous they’ve encountered yet. Not every airline will survive.

Our very own carriers, Lucio Tan’s Philippine Airlines, the Gokongwei family’s Cebu Pacific and Romero-led Philippines AirAsia are encountering the same turbulence, no thanks to COVID-19.

Will they survive? Philippine Airlines

Health experts said people who aren’t in the best shape are more prone to the virus. The parallelism isn’t lost in the aviation industry.

PAL hasn’t been in the best shape, no thanks to its internal problems, soaring fuel costs and soaring competition.

The company posted P4.33 billion in losses in 2018 and P7.3 billion in 2017. They had to let go of 300 employees.

Last March 5, I met PAL’s new president Gilbert Santa Maria over lunch. Smart, serious and touted as “Mr. Corporate Turnaround” by his wingwoman PAL spokesperson Cielo Villaluna, Santa Maria seemed confident PAL would make it through the crisis.

They have a game plan which he crafted with his team of new hires, he said. It was an off-the-record lunch so I’ll skip the details. But in published statements, PAL cited parts of the game plan: increase in revenue, cost control measures and new local flights from March to May.

But that was two weeks ago. The weather has changed drastically. We are now under enhanced community quarantine and there are no domestic flights until April 12. 

Cebu Pacific

I also talked to Cebu Pacific chief Lance Gokongwei yesterday and he said the situation has indeed worsened.

“The only thing worse than owning an airline now is owning a cruise ship,” he jested. I said I was happy to hear him still cracking jokes.

Turning serious, Lance said the situation now is really no laughing matter. Letting go of 150 cabin crew members was painful, but he said the company has assured them they would be the first in line when hiring resumes.

But Lance said the company supports the government-imposed quarantine, painful as it is. “Let’s take the pain now so we can come back tomorrow.”

Lance, the only son of the late taipan John Gokongwei, said he would do everything he can to make sure the airline his father founded survives. It is what the family’s patriarch would want.

“My Dad would say, it’s a public service so we have to do everything we can to save it. We have a responsibility to the community and to the employees.”

AirAsia

Rep. Michael Romero, owner of Philippines AirAsia, says the 30-day no fly period is already hurting the company.

“It makes us burn about P2 billion in costs and lost revenue of P3 billion,” he tells me.

Will they survive?

“We are making all efforts to survive the first 30 days. After that, the government must also create stimulus packages similar to what the US, UK and others are doing to keep major businesses afloat in their countries,” he says.

Like Lance, Rep. Mikee stresses that he nevertheless supports the government-imposed quarantine.

“Humanity must survive first.”

How the government can help

Airlines are private companies, but imbued with public interest.

The government can help them in three ways: provide them relief from taxes and fees such as fuel surcharges and VAT; help their employees in whatever way it can, and provide them government-backed loans, if needed. Other countries are doing this.

If we survive this crisis, the government should help the travel industry recover. Waiving terminal fees and travel taxes would be a good start.

Our local airlines employ thousands — at least 6,000 for PAL, 4,000 for Cebu Pacific and 2,000 for AirAsia.

Without any help, some of these companies might not survive the crisis.

I fervently hope they all make it and this isn’t just about convenience.

Can you imagine going back to an era where we could only travel to some places by ferries? Or when a lone carrier dictated the fares and traveling by plane was a luxury?

When I was young, I remember stories from my grandmother’s helpers. When they go home to the province, they would need an extra two days for the ferry trips.

With wide-eyed awe, I listened to their tales about their long days at sea in cramped and decrepit vessels. Born and raised in Manila, I could not imagine how a place in my country could be so far that it would take more than a day to make it home.

Maybe there were not flights yet to their far-flung provinces at the time. A few years ago, I took a night ferry to Marinduque, experiencing first hand a standing-room-only ride. We were like refugees lost at sea.

Airlines are far from perfect and we should always demand better services if we don’t get that from them, but I don’t want to go back to an era without airlines.

While our very own carriers sometimes make us seethe with frustration over their occasionally shabby services, I’d take them any day over a dangerous, cramped ferry ride at sea in the dead of night.

But this isn’t about me and my traumatic ferry rides. This is really about the movement of goods and services and people — for business, emergencies and leisure — at a faster pace, in sync with a world  that is also moving at dizzying speed.

Iris Gonzales’ email address is [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @eyesgonzales. Column archives at eyesgonzales.com