Fitch unit: Philippines to benefit from Jakarta’s nickel ore export ban

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines is poised to benefit from Indonesia's nickel ore export ban, a Fitch unit said.

In a report sent to the media Wednesday, Fitch Solutions said there is an “upside potential” to local production following the announcement that Indonesia will move forward with a nickel ore export ban, which will likely increase demand for Philippine nickel ore.

“Indonesia’s announcement on September 2nd to bring forward a planned nickel ore export ban from 2022 to Jan. 1, 2020 has created an opportunity for Philippine nickel miners to alleviate the impending supply shortfall in Indonesia - the largest nickel producer globally,” the report read in part.

“We believe nickel smelters in China, which currently import the majority of their ore from Indonesia, will likely look to the Philippines as an alternative source of supply, due to its proximity and substantial nickel mining capacity,” it added.

“This sudden increase in demand could lead to an acceleration of nickel mine development and increased investment into current operational projects, aimed at increasing production in 2020,” it continued.

But Fitch Solutions said it expects the Philippines to see “modest growth” in nickel mine production in 2019 due to restarting mines and gains from current operations.

“We maintain our subdued nickel mining growth outlook for the Philippines over the medium to long term, underpinned by the country's stringent environmental regulations and policy uncertainty that will undermine investment into the Philippine's thin nickel project pipeline,” the Fitch unit said. — Ian Nicolas Cigaral