The quitting option

As rumors intensify of her looming conviction and ouster by the Senate impeachment court, some quarters are speculating that Vice President Sara Duterte may opt to resign before the verdict.

Merceditas Gutierrez did this, resigning as ombudsman effective May 6, 2011, after she was impeached on March 22 by the House of Representatives and weeks before her Senate impeachment trial was set to start.

Gutierrez explained that she wanted to spare the nation from a divisive impeachment trial. She said it would also allow the government of Noynoy Aquino to focus on urgent matters.

Speculative reports said that in exchange for her resignation, she received her full retirement benefits and was spared from criminal prosecution.

She was also spared from being barred from public office. In April 2023, President Marcos appointed her as acting board member of the Government Service Insurance System. In October last year, BBM named her chair and CEO of the National Commission of Senior Citizens, with a term lasting up to Sept. 17, 2031.

But there are legal experts who say that even if an impeached official resigns, the Senate impeachment court can still proceed with the trial, render a guilty verdict and permanently bar the official from any government post.

Section 3 (7) of Article XI in the Constitution, on the accountability of public officials, states: “Judgment in cases of impeachment shall not extend further than removal from office and disqualification to hold any office under the Republic of the Philippines, but the party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to prosecution, trial, and punishment according to law.”

The provision may seem pretty straightforward, the interpretation cut and dried, but not in our country where extensive public debates are conducted on the meaning of “forthwith,” “all” and “grave threats.”

In that constitutional provision, the operative word is “and” – the word between “removal from office” and “disqualification to hold any office…” It’s not and/or, but just plainly and simply “and.”

Is that open to subjective interpretation? I’m guessing that some of the senator-judges will say it is, and that disqualification from public office is a separate penalty for someone convicted in an impeachment trial.

Those senators can either call for a vote by the impeachment court or take the issue directly to the Supreme Court. But SC intervention may have to wait for the Senate verdict on the VP.

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VP Sara’s spokesman Paolo Panelo has said she does not intend to resign. Her defense team also maintains confidence in her acquittal.

Day One of the defense presentation last Monday, however, didn’t bode well for the VP’s case.

But at least no pro-Duterte senator moved to give the defense a chance to rebut before the court the two Articles of Impeachment presented and then dropped by the prosecution. (Such a move would likely be voted down by the majority.) This spares the nation from a protracted trial.

Instead of resignation, the Duterte camp is said to be seriously grooming its Plan B for 2028: the VP’s younger brother Sebastian.

B is for Baste, according to the DDS grapevine, with Sen. Bong Go as the running mate. The VP is known to detest Go, but Baste may be more accepting of his father’s sidekick.

This tandem of two Davao natives would go against the team-up formula of broad regional representation in the races for president and VP. But the DDS is reportedly counting on the strong Mindanao votes (plus a segment of the Visayas) to carry a Baste-Bong Go tandem to victory.

There are debates on whether the VP’s popularity is transferable to her younger brother. But it would be prudent for the anti-DDS groups not to leave anything to chance. Regardless of the outcome of the impeachment trial, these groups should decide on a common candidate to field against any Duterte in 2028.

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Survey firms keep pitting the VP against her predecessor, now Naga Mayor Leni Robredo.

Last Monday, Robredo reiterated, in the strongest terms yet, that she wasn’t running for president, that she lacked the “political savvy” for it, and that she could just help in someone else’s presidential campaign.

Some of her allies again expressed hope that she would change her mind. Whether or not she does, there’s one issue in which there’s broad agreement: multiple presidential candidates in 2028 would work in favor of the Duterte team.

BBM, whose family is toast in case of a Duterte victory in 2028, may want to work for a common candidate. Apart from being anti-Duterte, however, there seems to be little commonality between the Marcos camp and the traditional “pink” and “yellow” opposition.

Some of these opposition stalwarts are adamant that their camp will never team up with the Marcos forces to beat the Dutertes. There are also those who sniff that with the still unresolved corruption scandal, with the Marcoses themselves now being drawn into the mess, combined with galloping inflation and a slowing economy, BBM’s endorsement is turning into a kiss of death for candidates in 2028.

Still, there’s a persistent buzz that at least one traditional opposition stalwart has not entirely closed the doors to an informal alliance with the Marcos camp, if only to ensure victory against the Duterte forces. Some may deride it as a sellout; others will call it pragmatism.

One thing is certain: regardless of the outcome of the impeachment trial, the Dutertes aren’t backing out of the 2028 battle.

And the Duterte brand remains formidable.