Historical trends in Philippine vice presidential polls

Tito Sen is leading all vice presidential hopefuls. Cebuanos are poised to favor him. His grandfather was the famous lawyer, legislator and brother of Don Filemon, Don Vicente Sotto, in whose honor the country's biggest and most modern regional medical center was named. I predict that Tito Sen will win in Cebu, and also the overall vice presidential contest.

Vice presidents, they often say, are spare tires. All they do is to pray for the death or resignation of the presidents so that they could take over. Well, when President Quezon died in 1944, Don Sergio took over. In 1948, President Roxas passed on and Vice President Quirino assumed office. When President Magsaysay died in 1953, Vice President Garcia became president. GMA grabbed half of Erap's tenure via EDSA II in 2001.

Most vice presidents were close allies of the presidents but a number of them became bitter enemies. President Duterte does not really see eye to eye with VP Robredo. At first, both tried to have a modus vivendi with the other, but they both failed. They are like oil and water, sweet and sour, one is from Venus, the other from Mars. They collided. As did Erap and GMA and GMA with Tito Guingona. Cory had a falling out with Ninoy's friend, Doy Laurel, as did Marcos with Fernando Lopez. The staunch Nacionalista Party member, Garcia had problems with Liberal Party's Macapagal.

The first vice president was Mariano Trias. He lost in the election for president at the Tejeros Convention in 1897 but was elected vice president with Aguinaldo as president by majority of the 256 delegates. The first generally elected VP was Don Sergio Osmeña in 1935 garnering 86.91% of the votes cast, over Raymundo Meliza and Norberto Nabong. In 1941, Osmeña got 91.1% over Emilio Javier. In 1946, LP's Elpidio Quirino with 52.36% won over Eulogio Rodriguez. In 1949, Fernando Lopez (51.67%) of LP won over the Cebuano, Manuel Briones (35.14%) of NP. In 1953, Garcia, NP, with 62.9%, won over LP's Jose Yulo with 37.1%.

In 1957, Macapagal, LP, got 46.55% over NP's Jose Laurel Jr.'s 37.92%. In 1961, Emmanuel Pelaez, LP, with 37.57% won over Serging Osmeña, independent, with 34.37% and Gil Puyat, NP, with 28.06%. In 1965, Fernando Lopez, NP, won with 48.46 % over Gerry Roxas of LP with 48.11. Lopez won only by a mere 26,724 votes. There was a third candidate, Manuel Manahan who got 3.4%. In 1969, Lopez of NP won again with 62.75% over Gene Magsaysay of LP with 37.24%. There were no elections for vice president during martial law. In 1986, Arturo Tolentino won with 50.66%. Doy Laurel got only 45.85%.

In 1992, Erap won with 33.01% over Marcelo Fernan's 21.74%, Lito Osmeña’s 16.47%, Ramon Magsaysay Jr.’s 14.2%, Nene Pimentel's 9.9%, Vic Magsaysay's 3.43%, and Eva Kalaw's 1.25%. In 1998, GMA won 49.56% of the votes over Ed Angara's 22.11%; Oca Orbos, 13%; Serge Osmena, 9.2%; Kit Tatad, 2.2%; and four others. In 2004, Noli de Castro won 49.8% over Loren Legarda's 46.89%. In 2010, Jojo Binay won with 41.65% over Mar Roxas with 39.58% and Legarda with 12.21%. In 2016, Leni Robredo got 35.11% over Bongbong Marcos who got 34.47%, Cayetano with 14.38%, Escudero with 12.01%, Trillanes with 2.11%, and Honasan with 1.92%.

My bold prediction is Tito Sen will win hands down. If I were Kiko, in order to save Sharon Cuneta from being torn between her love for husband and her affection for Tita Helen Gamboa's husband, I would slide down to the senatorial post, after convincing Manny Pacquiao to slide down as vice president of Leni Robredo. There is no way that Kiko could win over Tito. Bong Go may even get more votes than Kiko. He should ponder on it and decide to save his political career. Mark my words.