COP28 and our losing battle against climate change

The 28th Climate Change Conference recently concluded in Dubai. As usual, the conference was chockful of presentations warning us of impending climate-induced doom. Sadly, the world is losing its fight against climate change.

Global warming is accelerating. Since the start of the industrial revolution 263 years ago, coal, oil and gas powered man’s insatiable appetite for electric power. The unabated use of fossil fuels has caused global temperatures to rise by 1.2 degrees Celsius since the industrial revolution began.

Experts warn that should global temperatures increase by 2 degrees Celsius, the consequences on the planet will be severe. Natural disasters like heat waves, super typhoons, ocean acidification, biodiversity loss and fresh water scarcity will occur with alarming frequency. Worse, rising sea levels will reclaim many coastal areas back to the ocean, including many parts of the Philippines.

With clear and present threats, the urgency to reduce carbon emissions has reverberated worldwide. Nations, including the Philippines, pledged to reduce their carbon emissions.

During the Climate Change Conference in 2015 (COP21), governments from around the world made commitments to limit global warming to under 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrialization levels, while pursuing efforts not to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. Countries that are parties to the Paris Agreement submitted their targets and plans for decarbonization. These are known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

It has been eight years since the ratification of the Paris Agreement and many developed countries (mostly in Europe) boast of having met their NDCs. In actuality, most of these countries have merely transferred their manufacturing industries to emerging economies. What we see today is a geographical off-set of emissions, not a substantial reduction of it. The world continues to get warmer.

How is the Philippines performing in terms of its NDCs? The Philippines emits an annual average of 1.98 metric tons of greenhouse gases per person, way below the global average of four metric tons per person. Yet, we committed to reduce our emissions by an ambitious 75 percent. Only 2.71 percent of the reduction is a firm commitment, while 72.99 percent are contingent on technology transfers, financing, etc.

The Philippines achieved several milestones towards decarbonizing. Among them is the passage of the Renewable Energy Act which provides incentives and regulatory mechanisms to encourage the adoption to renewable energy. The aggressive promotion of renewable energy with the goal of deriving 35 percent of our energy production from green sources by 2050. A commitment to migrate to electric vehicles beginning with last-mile public transportation (jeeps and tricycles). The adoption of sustainable urban development parameters for new township developments. The nationwide roll-out of a mangrove reforestation program, among many others. 

Notwithstanding these advancements, the Philippines is still behind in meeting its NDC. At this stage, green technologies should have found its way across the agriculture, transport, waste management and manufacturing industries. It is not there yet. The green industrial revolution has barely began. The Marcos administration has a lot to do to accelerate green technology adoption.

But is the world on track towards achieving the targets set forth by the Paris Agreement Not either. This is because the ambition not to exceed the 2 degrees Celsius threshold by 2050 was not realistic in the first place.

See, the technologies needed to generate clean power without environmental consequence does not exist yet. Sure, one would argue that energy derived from solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, hydrogen, biogas and nuclear emit substantially less greenhouse gases than fossil fuels. But building these renewable energy plants requires such massive amounts of raw materials that its net effect, in terms of environmental degradation, is more damaging than using fossil fuels. Let me cite an example.

For example, to replace a 50-megawatt diesel turbine engine with a wind farm will require 15 wind turbines, each 150 meters tall (as high as a 45-story building). To build the 15 wind turbines requires 15,000 tons of iron ore, 25 tons of cement and 450 tons of advance plastics. If the 50 megawatts is generated by solar power, the raw material needed will be 150 percent more.

It is said that by the year 2050, the global demand for copper, iron ore, aluminum, silver, lithium, graphite cobalt, nickel, manganese, silicon, chromium, zinc and rare earth materials will have to increase by more than a hundred-fold if the world migrates to electric vehicles and derives at least half of its electric power from renewable sources. Thousands of new mineral mines will have to be built.

Consider that to produce just 10,000 tons of silver, a mine will generate enough toxic sludge to fill a reservoir measuring two miles long and 25 meters high. Three hundred mines with similar output and toxic waste must be built to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Too, consider that to extract just one ton of lithium from brines requires 1.9 million tons of water. Multiply this by 100 and you can imagine the impact on the world’s fresh water supply.

The thousands of mines that must be built, occupying large swaths of earth, will have to be written-off as “wastelands,” given the toxic byproducts they generate.

And then there is the issue of waste disposal. Where do we dispose of the megatons of metals, glass and plastics used by de-commissioned renewable energy plants? Where do we dispose of the dysprosium, indium, neodymium and uranium after their useful lives?

The intention of the Paris Agreement is noble but the technology to make it viable is not there yet. Until more efficient power-generating technologies are developed, the intention to mitigate climate change without environmental consequences is a losing battle.

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Email: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @aj_masigan