No predictions this time

It’s a New Year and it is difficult to accept that the pandemic and surges are still among the opening topics for the year. The most difficult but most often asked questions now is, when will this end or will this ever end?

I have decided to stop making predictions since I had two major wrong predictions for the year 2021. The first one was the pandemic. I joined the speculations on when the pandemic would end. Just like most people, including experts, we failed to foresee the coming of the Omicron, a new variant.

The other wrong prediction was that I said Sara Duterte would either run for president or for reelection as mayor of Davao City. I never thought she would choose vice presidency as an option. I explained all of these in my last column.

This year, 2022, I will try to resist any temptation to make any prediction. Instead, I am drawing up a list of areas or topics which I think will be worth watching closely this coming year.

Of course the pandemic and the presidential elections will be the two subjects which everyone will be watching closely. Regarding the pandemic, there are still those who are predicting its end sometime this year. After the Omicron experience, I think that any prediction regarding the pandemic is best left in the hands of God. This is a sincere statement with no intention of being humorous, cynical or defeatist.

Regarding the presidential elections, we can hope for a major change; but, hoping is different from predicting. Anyone who says that the election is a foregone conclusion is either a person who likes to think that he can be a prophet or is simply looking for public attention.

There are, however, contests for other positions that are worth monitoring. The vice presidential election has become critical because Sara Duterte is running. If she loses, that may perhaps bring an end to the Duterte dynasty.

The senatorial elections are also worth watching. The veteran politicians are expected to dominate. However, I will be watching how the opposition-identified candidates will fare. These include Diokno, Hontiveros, De Lima and Trillanes. Gordon took a big risk in publicly attacking a popular sitting President. This courageous action should be admired.

There are elections among local officials that are also worth watching closely. There are the contests between Marcos backed candidates running against incumbent or incumbent backed candidates like in Quezon City and Manila. Then there are incumbents who have bucked the trend and are openly endorsing the opposition candidate – Leni Robredo – like the mayors of Mandaluyong, Malabon and Cagayan de Oro. These can also be described as politically courageous decisions.

The next big story is the economy. Many economists, government officials and businessmen were predicting that 2022 will be the year of the economic rebound. This was predicated on the assumption that the pandemic would either end or will become less widespread. Both these predictions are now in serious doubt.

Events in China and the United States will always have serious consequences in the Philippines. China is becoming more confident and more aggressive. This needs to be closely watched if this means a more aggressive Chinese policy in the West Philippine Sea.

As a geopolitical observer, I am also very interested in Xi Jinping’s moves towards consolidating his position as the sole and permanent ruler of China, which would make him the next Mao Zedong. I have always believed that this was his ultimate objective. There are observers who point out that Xi’s move to reduce the Politburo, China’s most powerful body, from nine to five members is meant to allow Xi to control a smaller body much more easily.

The Chinese government’s recent move to increase state and party control over China’s business sector is another move towards centralization of power. This move may dampen the entrepreneurial spirit of the country but Xi Jinping does not seem concerned. Right now one question being asked is, what has happened to Jack Ma?

On the other side of the coin is the United States, which seems to have elected a weak president. This is unfortunate because in this increasingly turbulent world, there is a need for the United States to provide strong leadership for the democratic world. This does not seem possible with Biden as the president. He is also very unpopular with the American constituents, which has increased the divisiveness and political polarization of the US electorate.

Personally, there are other stories that I will be closely monitoring. The first is the future of sports – whether sports events will finally be normalized. I especially miss the UAAP games. I want to see if the new La Salle basketball coach – Dindo Pumaren – will be able to make La Salle competitive once more. I am sure that I am not the only one who wants to see a revival of the traditional La Salle-Ateneo rivalry.

Digitalization is now the accepted trend in technology. Hopefully it will improve customer service. The question is how long will Philippine companies be able to implement digitalization.

Without making predictions, I still hope and pray that the Lord will bless us with a Happy New Year.

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