In politics and in love, there are no forevers

Just because he is the anointed candidate of the incumbent President does not mean that the coming presidential derby will just be a walk in the park for Mar Roxas. It will be an uphill battle for him, especially if it will not just be a one-on-one battle royale between him and the vice president. The entry of Grace Poe and Rodrigo Duterte will divide the anti-Binay votes. Thus, the dark horse from Makati stands to benefit more from a multiple candidate "labo labo." Mar can never be sure. In 2004, he topped the senatorial race with his branding as Mr Palengke. But in 2010, he was beaten not by Loren Legarda but by Jojo Binay. Mar was a poor third. In Philippine politics, there are no permanent loyalties anymore, unlike the golden years of the LP and the NP.

Just because the presidential bet is strong, it does not follow that the vice president can also win. Noynoy won in 2010. Mar did not. Erap won as President but his vice president lost to GMA. Arroyo made it as vice president but his president Joe de Venecia was beaten by Erap. In the same way, assuming that Grace can be persuaded to slide down, for not being ''hinog'' yet, it does not follow that those who will vote for him will also carry Mar as President. There are no party loyalties in the Philippines, unlike in the USA where the voters are either Democrats or Republicans, and in the UK where the voters are either for Labor or for the Conservatives. So also in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada.

In the Philippines, the voters are fickle-minded. Public opinions rise and fall depending upon how and to what extent the media manipulators make or unmake a candidate. Manny Villar was a victim of character assassination. Gibo Teodoro lost because he was too pure and his patronness, GMA, was so ''damaged'' both by adverse publicity and perhaps some shades of alleged truth to the charges against her. Chief Justice Renato Corona was also a victim of the de facto tactical alliance between the media and the administration machinery. Now, there are allegations that there was supposedly some "bribery" in the form of DAP and PDAP. But I really do not buy it. But the people do.

Three of the senators who voted to impeach Corona are now detained for alleged plunder. At least, Corona was only ousted but not detained. The senators are deprived of liberty even as they are not ousted. The three senators were so unkind with their condemnation of the former chief Justice. The Senate President then was even very harsh against Corona. Now, where is he? There is nothing permanent in politics and even love. Political alliances are broken. Marriages are shattered. There is nothing immutable but the process of change itself. The NPC and the LP alliance will soon break up with the NPC going for Grace and Chizz. All other alliances are vulnerable too. Because they are based on temporary conveniences and not cast in the iron of principles and ideology.

There is no candidate that can boast of being unbeatable. Senator Sonny Osmeña never lost an election before since 1963 under his uncle Serging's fusion with the Cuencos. Yet, Senator Sonny lost in two, not just one senatorial fights. The venerable Eddiegul lost to JV delos Reyes in the greatest upset in political history. Tony Cuenco used to be unbeaten until he lost to Eddiegul in the old third district by only 16 votes or so. Pabling Garcia, the Bar topnotcher from Dumanjug, former Deputy Speaker of the House, a Law Dean and a brilliant court room legal eagle was beaten by Willy Caminero in 2013. Need I tell you about the Tomas Osmeña Mike Rama political upset? There are no permanent victories nor defeats. Everything depends on how the "cookie crumbles."

And so, let the LP's in Cebu and the UNA too, remember that they can never be sure. Anything can happen between now and May 2016. Let the candidates expect the unexpected and prepare for the worst. The politicians you hate today may turn out to be your darling tomorrow. In Philippine politics, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent selfish interests. That is not my line, of course. But it seems to be the hard real politic. Indeed, in love and politics, there are no forevers.