OCTA: Actual cases in NCR less than double official DOH numbers

MANILA, Philippines — The actual number of coronavirus cases in Metro Manila could be "less than twice" the official number reported by the Department of Health, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said Monday. 

In a tweet Monday afternoon, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said that this was because the 343 random antigen tests conducted by the Department of Transportation on Wednesday and Thursday yielded a positivity rate of 0.6%. 

According to the latest figures published by the DOTr, none of the 160 cases on Thursday came out positive, while just two of the 183 the day before were of COVID-19 cases.

"Assuming NCR population of 14 million, then the margin of error is plus-minus 5% (with 95% confidence interval.) Based on DOH data, the total number of new reported cases in the NCR from January 20 to 29 was about 46,000," David said. 

"This means that the actual number of cases, which include asymptomatic and symptomatic cases not tested, and those tested with antigen but not reported, could be 1.8 times higher than the official numbers reported by DOH, with a 5% error margin."

According to Guido, this confirms that the number of new cases in the capital region is steadily decreasing. The number of unreported cases, too, is "decreasing at a significant rate" he said. 

Earlier, OCTA Research said that Metro Manila, Cavite and Rizal are now at moderate risk for COVID-19 infection, while the capital region could improve to low-risk "within two weeks if [the] downtrend continues."

The Department of Health on Sunday evening reported 16,953 new cases of the pathogen, good for a 31.4 percent positivity rate out of the 56,078 tests conducted. 

"The national numbers are not seeing a significant movement in either direction, although it has been drifting downward as cases continue to decrease in Calabarzon and Central Luzon," Guido also said. 

Actual cases in the NCR could be less than twice the official reported numbers of DOH, based on DOTr random antigen testing on January 26 - 27. This includes unreported cases. Note that on Jan 13, the estimate was about 10 times higher than reported numbers. @dzbb @DZAR1026 pic.twitter.com/L7YjgYq1T5

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 31, 2022

— Franco Luna