Curfews, granular lockdowns get NEDA backing
MANILA, Philippines — Localized lockdowns and the curfews they bring just got the backing of the government’s top economic official persistently lobbying for looser restrictions to allow the economy to get back on its feet.
This time, Acting Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua argued that the latest tightening of prohibitions represent a “good balance” between fighting a new surge and variants of coronavirus as well as permitting existing economic activities to carry on.
“We have to find a balance. Effective response now can help our growth prospects,” Chua said in a Viber message when sought for comment.
The return of curfews and checkpoints is the final nail that puts the 6.5-7.5% growth target this year at risk of getting lowered. Economic managers would meet soon to revisit their ambitious goals, and already, the last re-assessment of targets that assumed fewer quarantines in the first quarter is now unlikely to happen.
A fresh wave of COVID-19 virus has alarmed a government that relied on one of the world’s longest lockdowns, resorting to its immediate fix of more restrictions while awaiting the delayed arrival of COVID-19 vaccines by June. For businesses now most likely used to disruptions of last-minute changes, the decision is sensible but cautioned against expanding them beyond the barangay level.
“If the government decides to implement or step up checkpoints in localized lockdowns, we would urge them to keep the lockdowns as localized as possible, probably not city level but closer to barangay level or even more targeted to disrupt the flow of goods and people as little as possible,” Coco Alcuaz, executive director at Makati Business Club, a business group, said in an online exchange.
For his part however, Jefferson Arapoc, economist at University of Newcastle in Australia, said there is no point reopening the economy if people do not feel safe going out. “Given the recent resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the country, I think it is not wise to push consumers to go back to the pre-pandemic status quo,” he said in an email last Friday.
Unfortunately for the Philippines, this may only be possible with mass vaccinations. While existing health protocols are generally observed by the majority, Arapoc indicated that the country’s congested cities are making virus containment efforts two steps forward, and one step back.
“We have to remember that even if there are health protocols in placed (e.g., physical distancing), our infrastructure—with respect to population density—have limited carrying capacity that makes these protocols almost impossible to implement,” Arapoc explained.
With businesses and consumers likely to be at direct hit of new restrictions, legislators are asking the government to reconsider its tough stance against more fiscal stimulus. A third version of the Bayanihan bill, which has become the nomenclature for pandemic funding proposals, is gaining ground at the House of Representatives where it is authored and supported by no less than House Speaker Lord Allan Velasco.
But for Chua, money is not the problem. The P4.5-trillion 2021 budget is in place as well as funding still unspent under Republic Act No. 11464 or the Bayanihan to Recover As One extended until June 30, but the release of these funds has been sluggish.
“We have 2020 budget extension, 2021 budget and (Bayanihan 2) that haven’t been fully spent. We should implement them fully as priority,” he said.
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