Sunset

The sun might have finally set on the British Empire.

Last week’s referendum result was a possibility, but not generally considered the likely outcome – until the votes were counted. The result was a shock, not the least among those who cast a protest vote for Britain’s exit without expecting it would actually happen.

Most analysts agree that the swing in voter sentiment happened because of growing fear Britain would be swamped by immigrants. This has nothing to do with the European Union (EU) per se.

The vote was clearly delineated along ethnic lines. The English (with the notable exception of Greater London) and the Welsh voted to leave the EU. The Scots and the Northern Irish voted heavily to remain.

All the major parties – the Conservatives, Labor, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish nationalists – campaigned rather half-heartedly to remain. None of them fully expected the outcome.

The rest of Europe watched from the sidelines and could only express shock. True, the UK has been a troublesome partner in the common market, refusing to yield to a common currency. But the UK has been a staunch partner in the free trade agreements forged among member countries.

The first impact of the vote was in the markets.

In chorus, the markets in Europe, North America and Asia took severe losses. The British pound dropped to historic lows. The UK’s credit rating was slashed dramatically and economists are now talking about a long and deep recession.

There is debate over whether the results of this vote will erode the European common market project or cause the UK to break up.

The Scottish parliament is threatening to veto the results of the referendum where two-thirds of Scots chose to remain in the EU. If things get any worse, the Scots are threatening to revive talks of secession so that Scotland will remain in the EU.

For their part, the Northern Irish are threatening to rejoin Ireland. Religious affiliation now seems to be a minor question when pitted against the matter of leaving Europe.

Prime Minister David Cameron committed to resign by October. That might be too long a time to wait. The highest-ranking Briton serving in the Brussels headquarters already tendered his resignation, saying his continued stay has been rendered untenable.

Leaders of continental Europe have joined in chorus, asking the UK to formally submit its intention to leave the union.  It is clear they want this unprecedented divorce to happen soon before the political fallout begins to adversely affect the domestic politics of the others.

In a hurriedly called meeting of EU foreign ministers, it was clear the other European countries want the British exist to happen quickly – and as devastatingly as possible for the British. The foreign ministers want this exit to be as damaging as possible for the UK if only to demonstrate to their constituencies how much of a mess this could be.

The Lisbon Treaty establishing the EU speaks of a two-year period for any country wanting to leave the union to complete its disengagement. The countdown begins from the formal notification of a country’s decision to leave.

The “Brexit” is unprecedented. No one has really thought through this process.

The British may be in no hurry to formally file that notice. Already, just days after the historic vote, an online petition for the British parliament to entertain another vote has gathered over two million votes.

In a way, last week’s British vote was so un-British.

Where the British are stereotypically cold and calculating, the “Brexit” vote was emotional and impulsive. Where the British fancy themselves to be logical, the vote was not.

Now everything is up in the air and we do not know exactly where they will fall.

Markets, beneath the veneer of quantitative methods, are really unpredictable beasts that regularly feast on blood. Things could as easily fly off the handle if fear and irrationality take hold.

The demographics of the British referendum are now available.

Seventy percent of those who failed to complete high school voted to exit. Older people wanted to exit; younger ones preferred to remain. Those with lower incomes tended to vote “Leave.” Those who see their life chances receding voted against a united Europe.

The “Leave” vote was cast largely by white, male, older, poorer and less skilled people. The “Remain” vote was cast by younger, better skilled and very likely multicultural voters.

In a word, the Neanderthals voted against the common market. It was a vote driven by insecurity, by fear and by a sense of helplessness seeking false solace in autarky.

No economic reasoning explains the outcome of this vote. The answers lie in sociological and psychological analysis.

Now here is the even more disturbing thing.

The demographic profile of the “Leave” voters in the UK matches the profile of Donald Trump voters in the US. Those least equipped to deal with the complex challenges of modern society are inclined to call for a freeze on social change.

Forget about the euro or the common market. The quintessential question here is modernity.

The complex economic processes we have today advantages few and disadvantages many. There is no quick-fix solution to this. In want of an easy solution, we court a backlash at every opportunity.

David Cameron courted such a backlash by opening the doors of a referendum to those whose only exit is to cast an irrational vote. Donald Trump courts the same backlash with his brain-dead candidacy to be US president.