Inoculation, Part 2

Malacañang officials will deny it on the graves of their ancestors, but the public perception is that the Palace is behind lawyer Oliver Lozano’s re-filing of his defective impeachment complaint against President Arroyo.

Filing a defective complaint will effectively inoculate the President for a year from a serious impeachment effort that stands a chance of compelling her to face a Senate trial.

This we saw last year, when a lazy opposition that kept dreaming of people power realized too late that ousting a president would take more work than in January 2001.

Perhaps Lozano, who is identified with the Marcos loyalists, is truly acting on his own, believing that he is contributing to national stability by reminding coup plotters and the political opposition that the impeachment option is still open. The tropical heat can get to you.

We should be lumping Lozano together with the likes of Fortunato Abat, Eddie Gil and Jamby Madrigal. Unfortunately for the nation, the impact of Lozano’s legal maneuvers are far less benign than the hallucinations of Abat for a revolutionary transition government with himself as the head. Lozano’s maneuvers are more damaging than the spikes scattered across EDSA by that other member of the elite club of the brain-damaged, lawyer Elly Pamatong.

For those who see the hand of Malacañang manipulating Lozano, the revival of his impeachment complaint this early smacks of desperation.

If the administration truly has nothing to do with Lozano’s antics, it should work through back channels so the Marcos camp can give him Prozac to calm him down. There must be sober individuals among the Marcos loyalists who can advise him to wait at least until July, the opening of Congress, before he revives his impeachment complaint.

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If only for the timing of Lozano’s announcement, I can believe that the administration has nothing to do with what he describes as a mere "initiative" and not yet an actual re-filing of the impeachment complaint.

Surely the President‘s handlers realize that it’s way too early to revive the case. The President is immune from impeachment for a year from the filing of the previously dismissed complaint.

The administration is asking for trouble if it unleashes Lozano less than two weeks before the fifth anniversary of people power II, and a month before the 20th anniversary of the 1986 people power revolt.

True, events last year showed Filipinos’ disillusionment with people power. But with the two anniversaries coming up, rumors are once again circulating of renewed efforts to oust the occupant of Malacañang, over a year earlier than the new timetable suggested by Fidel Ramos for the President’s resignation.

Some quarters have been peddling the story of coup plotter-turned-failed politician Alexander Noble teaming up with Joseph Estrada’s transportation and communications secretary Pantaleon Alvarez to declare an independent Mindanao. Perhaps fugitive Marine Capt. Nicanor Faeldon has joined up with them.

All three are candidates for Abat’s elite club. But we must not dismiss the potential for mischief of even a single crackpot, which can make the rest of the world wonder again if the moon is always full in the Philippines.

And some of the best moments for that kind of mischief are the anniversaries of the two people power revolts.

The administration would have to be stupid to unleash Lozano at this time.

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Perhaps Lozano is truly a free agent, and he just wants to remind the restive natives that the constitutional way of replacing a president is through impeachment.

Perhaps he has even corrected the defects in his original complaint so it won’t be thrown out by the House of Representatives, which is dominated by the President’s allies. Some of those allies released a statement yesterday, vowing to give due course to any complaint that Lozano may file.

As a lawyer, Lozano surely knows how a president can be inoculated from impeachment. If he is sincere in wanting to impeach President Arroyo, he can gain credibility if he teams up with the House opposition in preparing a single complaint.

Last year opposition congressmen graciously acknowledged their mistakes and vowed to launch a better impeachment effort in 2006. This includes beating anyone — Lozano included — in being the first to file an impeachment case.

That race, expected this year, could turn the impeachment process into a joke if started this early.

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How do you weaken democratic institutions? By making a mockery of them. That’s what Lozano will achieve if he goes ahead with his plan to re-file his defective impeachment complaint way ahead of the deadline. Is he merely doing someone else’s bidding?

Last year Filipinos voted for institution-building and rejected old formulas for effecting political change. President Arroyo was saved from ouster through people power, ironically, by public disappointment with the results of the two previous people power revolts.

Without the scandals hounding her administration, President Arroyo would be an ideal leader for a country struggling to improve its competitiveness in a global economy. She understands the challenges posed by globalization and has blueprints for what must be done to deal with those challenges.

She knows what institution-building means, and seems at peace with the fact that a number of those who have not gone along with calls for her ouster have publicly declared that they are not supporting Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo the person but rather the presidency and constitutional processes.

Yesterday she declared in Cebu that her victory in the 2004 race is "unassailable." If she really believes that, she should have no fear of letting the impeachment process take its course.

Impeachment does not automatically lead to ouster; US President Bill Clinton survived impeachment over Monica Lewinsky and finished his second term. The impeachment process can be painful for any president, but it can bring closure to all the unresolved scandals that are hobbling governance.

Lozano’s premature move can only erode public confidence in the impeachment process and the nation’s capability to strengthen its institutions.

Sure, inoculation from impeachment is allowed by the rules. All is fair in love, war and politics. The opposition should simply beat Lozano in filing a proper impeachment complaint. But why lay the groundwork for inoculation this early?

I know, I know, Malacañang is denying any hand in this, and Lozano is insisting he is acting on his own. Still, the suspicion persists.

President Arroyo should avoid nurturing the public perception that for this administration, institution-building will always take a backseat to self-preservation.