OCTA Research: Quezon City still moderate risk with COVID-19 cases on a 'downward trend'

MANILA, Philippines — The coronavirus indicators in Metro Manila's biggest city continue to decrease, sparking hope that the coronavirus surge may have finally peaked in the capital region, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said Friday.

In a tweet advisory issued Friday morning, OCTA Research fellow Guido David said that the most recent seven-day average of daily COVID-19 cases in Quezon City (238) is 7% lower than the week of August 12 to 18. 

Per data from the Department of Health, Quezon City made up 202 of the 887 cases recorded in Metro Manila on Thursday afternoon. 

"Quezon City remained at moderate risk at this time. Cases are expected to continue on a downward trend, but there are no guarantees," he said in an advisory.

"The previous 7-day average was -5%, so Quezon City is on a two week decline in cases."

According to OCTA Research, the current average daily attack rate in Quezon City is 7.47 per day per 100,000 people, which is considered moderate. 

Quezon City on a downward trend. One week growth rate at -7%, positivity rate at 13.5%, reproduction number at 1.02. Healthcare utilization at 40%. Let us hope the downtrend continues. Quezon City remains at moderate risk. @QCGov @roribabyko pic.twitter.com/q5N6Ecqten

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) August 26, 2022

The reproduction number in Quezon City as of August 22 stood at 1.02, a number considered moderate while being lower than the 1.06 reproduction number just the week before. 

From August 20 to August 24, the positivity rate also decreased from 15.5% to 13.5%. 

Reproduction number refers to the number of people one coronavirus-positive patient can infect, while growth rate measures the speed of the increase in COVID-19 infections in a given area. 

"Healthcare utilization for COVID-19 in Quezon City was low at 40% while ICU occupancy was also low at 36% both as of August 24," OCTA Research said.

"These are lower than the healthcare utilization of 45% and ICU occupancy of 49% both as of August 21."