OCTA: ‘Very low risk’ NCR possible in March

MANILA, Philippines — It is possible for the National Capital Region (NCR) to be downgraded to “very low risk” next month, a member of the OCTA Research Group said yesterday.

OCTA fellow Guido David said the region has been averaging just 600 new COVID cases per day since Feb. 8, within the revised projections he issued last Jan. 24.

“The projections show a decrease to less than 200 new cases per day by end of February. The magic number to achieve ‘very low risk’ classification is 140 new cases per day, which seems possible by March,” he said.

“The NCR achieved ‘very low risk’ classification in December 2021 before Omicron,” David added.

Earlier this week, OCTA downgraded the NCR to “low risk” classification as new cases continued to decline.

At least five local government units – Caloocan, Pateros, Navotas, Taguig and Marikina – are also considered “low risk” for COVID-19.

The Department of Health, however, disputed OCTA’s assessment, stressing yesterday that the NCR remained at moderate risk as it called for strict compliance with health protocols.

As of Feb. 10, the NCR only had an average daily attack rate of 6.55 daily new infections per 100,000 people, considered as “moderate” based on OCTA’s metrics. Its positivity rate also went down to a “moderate” nine percent, while health care utilization is at a “very low” 29 percent.

David earlier projected that new cases in the region may drop to less than 500 by Valentine’s Day. OCTA uses risk classification metrics based on covidactnow.org and are different from those used by the national government.

Uptick in Malabon, Navotas

Meanwhile, the cities of Malabon and Navotas saw an increase in the number of COVID cases as of Thursday.

Malabon recorded 72 active cases, higher than the 53 active cases on Feb. 2. Out of the 72 active cases, a majority came from Barangay Panghulo with 16. Barangays Acacia, Flores, Muzon, San Agustin and Tañong had no active case.

Navotas has 61 active COVID cases, up from the 47 active cases on Feb. 7.

Barangays NBBS Dagat-dagatan and San Rafael Village have nine cases each. Barangays Bagumbayan North and Navotas West have none.

As of Thursday, there were 21,018 confirmed cases in Navotas and 25,243 in Malabon. –  Ghio Ong