Experts urge Philippines to explore other avenues to assert rights over West Philippine Sea

MANILA, Philippines — Diplomatic talks between the Philippines and China over the disputed islands in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) should now be "off the table," an expert claimed, after a Chinese vessel fired water cannons at two Philippine ships that were escorting boats during a resupply mission in Ayungin Shoal.

China's "belligerent" behavior should put a halt to any future discussions on how to maintain peace at the islands, which an arbitral tribunal in 2016 ruled to be territories of the Philippines, independent political analyst Michael Henry Yusingco told Philstar.com in an interview.

"'Yung pakikipag-usap sa China is wala nang pupuntahan precisely because of China itself, because of the bad faith of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party)," Yusingco, formerly with the Ateneo Policy Center and now based in Australia, said.

(Talks are going nowhere between the Philippines and China precisely because of China itself, because of the bad faith of the CCP.)

"Given the bad faith and belligerence of the CCP, bilateral talks should be off the table. Backchannel talks should be off the table," he added.

A Chinese vessel blocked on August 6 a Philippine ship from completing its routine resupply mission to Filipino troops manning the BRP Sierra Madre, which has been permanently stationed at Ayungin Shoal since 1999. A second ship was allowed to move forward.

On August 7, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced that the Philippines sent a note verbale to China, his 101st since he took office on June 30, 2022, through their official representatives to protest the attack.

But for Froilan Calilung, a political science professor at the University of Santo Tomas, it is time for the government to look for other ways to assert the country's right over the islands. 

"[N]akakalungkot isipin na nagpapadala naman tayo ng mga diplomatic statements, note verbales every now and then, but it's always falling on deaf ears," he said at the Saturday News Forum in Quezon City on August 12.

"And I think ang ine-exploit dito ng China, I think, 'yung resilience natin. Alam nila na magiging upset tayo, maiinis tayo, pero lilipas din 'yan until the next incursion or provocation comes in," he added.

(It's saddening to think that despite sending diplomatic statements and note verbale every now and then, they're both always falling on deaf ears. And I think China is exploiting our resiliency. They know that after some time of being upset, it would eventually fade away until the next incursion or provocation comes in.)

A delicate balancing act

Lawmakers are urging the president to take more aggressive and out-of-the-box steps to hold China accountable for its deeds and prepare Filipinos for any act of war.

Rep. Rufus Rodriguez (Cagayan de Oro City, 2nd District) called on Marcos to "downgrade our embassy in Beijing" to manifest the country's "indignation" over the attack.

"The president should order our unusually quiet and inactive ambassador there to return to Manila and to replace him with a lower-level diplomatic officer," he said in a statement on August 7.

For her part, Sen. Risa Hontiveros moved to ban China-owned Chinese Communication Construction Co. (CCCC) from conducting business in the Philippines. The CCCC, which has been blacklisted in the United States since 2020, has entered into public-private partnerships with the government to construct highways and introduce fungi technology to resolve soil erosion.

"The CCCC is a predatory company. It works in conjunction with the Chinese maritime militia to deliberately destroy coral reefs in the WPS and poach endangered giant clams," she said in a release on August 7. 

"It acts in the guise of a legitimate business, but it is only aiding the Chinese state in its creeping invasion. Kasabwat siya sa pagnanakaw ng ating mga teritoryo sa WPS [West Philippine Sea]. Dapat lang na palayasin na sa bansa," she added.

(It acts in the guise of a legitimate business, but it is only aiding the Chinese state in its creeping invasion. The CCCC is in cahoots with China in stealing our territories at WPS [West Philippine Sea]. We should get rid of that company in our country.)

The water-cannon incident has prompted Sen. Robinhood Padilla to revive calls to reinstate mandatory Reserve Officers Training Corps (ROTC) in college to enable Filipinos to defend themselves against perceived enemies. Despite being one of Marcos's priority bills, the proposal is still languishing in the Senate.

"Ang sinasabi ko po, mga mahal kong kasama sa Senado, kung ano po ang gigil sana natin dito ay pantayan natin ng aksyon natin sa apat na sulok ng Senado. Kahit mandatory ROTC na lamang po sana, sana maihanda po natin ang ating mga kababayan at ganoon din po diyan sa imminent danger," he said at a Senate hearing on August 7. 

(What I'm saying, my dear Senate colleagues, is that whatever irritation we feel should be matched with action here in the four corners of the Senate. Let's just pass mandatory ROTC to prepare our citizens for any imminent danger.)

Senate President Juan Miguel Zubiri, meanwhile, raised the possibility of exempting the Armed Forces of the Philippines from procurement laws to acquire weapons faster.

However, Yusingco stressed that the government should be careful in making any moves to avoid any negative backlash on the country's economy.

"[W]e have to know what could be the potential countermeasures, like puwede silang mag-pullout ng investments, puwede silang magpauwi ng mga OFWs (overseas Filipino workers) natin dun. [M]araming puwedeng mangyari that we have to know about and also quantify that kung ano ang epekto sa ekonomiya natin," he said.

(We have to know what could be China's potential countermeasures, including a pullout of investments and deportation of our OFWs there. Many things can happen that we must know about and we must quantify their effects on our economy.)

Caught between a rock and a hard place, the Philippines' largest trading partner remains to be China, with exports amounting to $10.97 billion and imports hitting $28.2 billion last year.

The long game

Even before the incident, Hontiveros filed Senate Resolution No. 659, urging the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) to bring up China's incursions to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

"[A UNGA] resolution, while not legally binding, carries significant political weight and serves as expressions of the will and consensus of the international community, with the potential to shape international norms, influence national policies, and provide guidance for the work of other UN organs, specialized agencies and regional organizations," the resolution stated.

The Senate stopped short of passing it, instead settling for a resolution calling on the government to intensify its efforts in asserting the Philippines' sovereignty over the contested waters.

During a House hearing on Tuesday, Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo said that, despite the recent attack, the government remains unsure if a UNGA resolution can garner sufficient support from member countries.

"It becomes very political. It is not about legal or humanitarian [issues] anymore. We cannot predict how countries will vote or support," Manalo said.

Manalo added that the arbitral ruling might be open to debate if introduced as a UNGA resolution, despite its existing legal binding nature.

Yusingco said the Philippines should be calculated if it really wants to raise the issue at the UN because it has to spend a lot of time and resources.

"We have to have a cost-benefit discussion about it. We have to hear the risk analysis ng ating mga foreign service people sa UN. We have to also listen to the views of international law experts," the political analyst said. 

"In other words, it's not a decision that we should lightly make or even as a knee-jerk reaction to what the Chinese Coast Guard did," he added.