GMA’s turnaround tops Palace stories

The year 2002 ended with President Arroyo announcing that she was withdrawing from the 2004 race.

For the President, 2003 will be remembered as the year she changed her mind and decided she was running after all.

When she announced in Baguio City that she was withdrawing from the 2004 race, she explained that she wanted to focus her energy on revitalizing the country’s sluggish economy without being distracted by politics.

For much of 2003 the nation closely watched Mrs. Arroyo to see if she would follow in the footsteps of her father, the late President Diosdado Macapagal, who reneged on his word that he would not seek re-election in 1965 and would give way to Ferdinand Marcos.

Mrs. Arroyo was catapulted to office following the 2001 uprising that ousted Joseph Estrada.

Analysts say next year’s elections will be a litmus test of the legitimacy of the Arroyo administration.

If movie icon Fernando Poe Jr., Estrada’s best friend, pushes through with his bid for the presidency, the 2004 race could be an uphill battle for Mrs. Arroyo.

Harping on Poe’s lack of experience in public office, Mrs. Arroyo expects her achievements and track record to win her a full six-year term.

Her surprise decision on Dec. 30, 2002 to withdraw from the presidential race was timely.

Even before 2003 began, Mrs. Arroyo already had her hands full.

In January, the dreaded Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome mystery flu-like virus or SARS was knocking on the nation’s door and already spanning half the globe — threatening to shut down the airline industry, kill tourism and even strike down whole economies that were still reeling from the world threat of al-Qaeda.

Despite the lack of more modern technology to screen travelers, the Philippines would emerge relatively unscathed by the epidemic, earning Mrs. Arroyo points.

In March, Mrs. Arroyo put her presidency on the line by throwing her administration’s vocal support for the unilateral US-led invasion of Iraq, braving flak from critics.

Actually, because she was then no longer seeking the presidency in 2004, Mrs. Arroyo had nothing to gamble to begin with.

Popular opinion polls later showed public approval for her position on the Iraq war.

Mrs. Arroyo said the surveys proved that not all unpopular decisions were necessarily wrong, and her December 2002 decision not to seek a new term in 2004 gave her nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, Manila and Washington have been working together in fighting both local and foreign Muslim extremists allegedly linked to the al-Qaeda network and its Southeast Asian ally Jemaah Islamiyah.

It was Mrs. Arroyo’s vocal support for the US-led global war on terrorism — including the Iraq war — that raised the Philippines’ profile in the international arena and later earn Manila a much-coveted seat in the United Nations Security Council in November.

In May, US President George W. Bush honored with Mrs. Arroyo with a rare state dinner in Washington, a gesture of thanks he has been stingy with.

Bush capped Mrs. Arroyo’s visit with an announcement that the United States had designated the Philippines as a major non-NATO ally, giving Manila high priority in future US security assistance.

In mid-October, Bush reiterated America’s appreciation to its long-time Asian ally with an eight-hour state visit to Manila.

But the Arroyo administration’s war on terror was not without setbacks.

Bush’s visit was thrown into doubt in July by the embarrassing escape of Indonesian Fathur Rohman al-Ghozi — a self-confessed Jemaah Islamiyah bomb expert.

News of Al-Ghozi’s escape — from Camp Crame, the headquarters of the Philippine National Police, no less — broke while Mrs. Arroyo was receiving Australian Prime Minister John Howard, who was then in town for security talks.

Al-Ghozi was killed in Mindanao by police and troops just a week before Bush’s visit to Manila, triggering speculations that he had been caught earlier and executed to boost the Arroyo administration’s anti-terror image.

Mrs. Arroyo’s victories in the anti-terror campaign include the killing or capture of other terrorist leaders, including the notorious Abu Sayyaf senior leader Ghalib Andang, better known as Commander Robot, who was caught early last month.

Despite Al-Ghozi’s killing, rumors of a coup attempt by a restive military have been roiling ever since around 300 junior officers and troops staged a failed mutiny on July 27, only days after Al-Ghozi’s escape.

The mutineers complained of corruption in the military, accusing the military leadership of selling weapons to rebel groups and staging bombings in Mindanao to frame the Moro Islamic Liberation Front as a terrorist organization.

They also claimed that military leaders were planning bombings in Metro Manila to extend Mrs. Arroyo’s term by martial law.

Mrs. Arroyo — who had been riding on the military’s back since she replaced Estrada in 2001 — promised to modernize the military and introduce reforms.

She took to having talks with generals and visiting troops to ensure their loyalty to the rule of law.

Mrs. Arroyo got a boost from Bush, who told a joint session of Congress during his Manila state visit that Washington would not support military adventurism.

Aside from hunting down terrorists, Mrs. Arroyo spent much of the past year trying to curb illegal gambling and crime — particularly kidnappings-for-ransom and illegal drugs — in line with her efforts to build a "strong republic" which she vowed in her 2002 State of the Nation Address.

She put her former defense secretary Angelo Reyes in charge of the National Anti-Kidnapping Task Force. That gave him a chance to redeem himself after his resignation in August in the wake of corruption allegations leveled against him by the mutineers.

Mrs. Arroyo scored some victories in her campaign against drug traffickers with several police raids on large shabu-making facilities across Metro Manila.

It is her campaign against crime that Mrs. Arroyo seemed to be more challenged.

In November, the Chinese-Filipino community was angered by the death of 32-year-old Coca-Cola executive Betti Chua Sy, who was killed in a botched kidnap attempt.

Under pressure from the Chinese-Filipino community to rein in the resurgent kidnapping scourge, Mrs. Arroyo lifted her year-long moratorium on death penalty executions early last month.

Her decision drew criticism from the influential Roman Catholic Church, accusing her of playing to the gallery because of the 2004 elections.

It was believed that Mrs. Arroyo withdrew from the presidential race in December 2002 because of her falling ratings and she later reconsidered when the numbers went back up.

Speculation that Mrs. Arroyo would change her mind and seek the presidency began as early as July as her party Lakas-Christian Muslim Democrats went into a quandary on who to field in 2004.

Mrs. Arroyo fueled the speculation in the following months by acting more like a candidate than a president who said she wanted to focus on the country’s economy.

Finally on Oct. 5, Mrs. Arroyo announced during a rally in Clark Field in her home province of Pampanga that she was back in the running, citing a clamor for her to remain in office.

Recent polls showed that most Filipinos felt that Mrs. Arroyo should have been true to her word that she would not run in 2004.

However, with Poe standing for election, Mrs. Arroyo will need all the votes she can get. She is trailing in the latest opinion polls. If they are accurate, that means Mrs. Arroyo could lose her job.

Earlier in the year, Malacañang officials partly blamed Mrs. Arroyo’s sagging ratings on administration nemesis Sen. Panfilo Lacson, who in August let loose with a string of allegations against First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo.

Lacson accused Mrs. Arroyo’s husband of money laundering, tax evasion and even marital infidelity.

Although Poe lacks experience in holding public office, analysts say what makes him attractive to voters — most of whom are from the poor — is his well-known integrity.

Mrs. Arroyo says Filipinos will not want a repeat of the Estrada presidency and will vote on the basis of performance — not popularity. Come May, her statement will be put to the test. — Marichu Villanueva