Palay harvest seen to drop 6.9% in Q1

MANILA, Philippines — Palay production in the first quarter may hit 4.37 million metric tons (MT), a 6.9-percent decline from the same period last year, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) said.

According to its latest forecast, palay harvest from January to March may drop by 6.9 percent, based on latest standing crop data, from the 4.7 million MT output reported in the same period in 2025.

The PSA said total harvest area during the three-month period is estimated to decline by 6.1 percent to 1.08 million hectares from the actual harvest area of 1.15 million hectares last year.

The average palay yield is also expected to decrease in the first quarter, where harvest per hectare is seen hitting 4.06 MT or a 0.7-percent drop from the 4.09 MT per hectare yield in 2025.

Rice production is expected to decline this year as increased fertilizer prices weigh down farmers’ spending amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.

As of March 1, the PSA said an estimated 567,090 hectares of palay area have been harvested, which translated to a palay output of 2.2 million MT. The latest figures are 52.6 percent of the 1.08 million hectares of harvest area for the period.

About 35.6 percent of the standing palay as of March 1 were at the maturing stage, 33.7 percent were at the vegetative stage, and 30.8 percent were at the reproductive stage.

Meanwhile, the PSA report also projected that local corn production would decrease by 3.9 percent to 2.31 million MT from 2.4 million MT during the first quarter of 2024.

The total harvest area for corn is expected to drop by 5.2 percent to 612.82 thousand hectares. On the other hand, the total yield per hectare of corn is anticipated to rise to 3.77 MT per hectare or 1.3 percent higher than the 37.2 MT hectare last year.

About 377,050 hectares or 61.5 percent of the harvest area of standing corn have been harvested as of March 1, equivalent to 1.37 million MT of corn.