Preparing for El Niño  

With El Niño back once again after seven years, it’s time to put more muscle into the El Niño Task Force to carry out the country’s Extended Roadmap to Address the Impact of El Nin?o (E-RAIN) strategy, as well as introduce further improvements to mitigate an foreseen harsher effect on the Philippines.

During the country’s last El Niño spell, which lasted 18 months from 2015 to 2016, about five percent of our farmers and 550,000 hectares of farmlands were badly affected by an El Niño-induced drought. Aggregate reports indicated severe effects on a third of the country, where a state of calamity was declared in six cities, 16 provinces, and 65 municipalities.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which monitors weather and climate information across the globe, provides crucial early and reliable warnings of severe weather that are used by decision-makers to be better prepared for climate changes.

For this current El Niño cycle, the WMO is predicting breaking temperature records and more extreme heat in many parts of the world. The warnings by the WMO for countries likely to be most affected by this current El Niño cycle include the need by respective governments to mobilize all preparations to limit the impact on the economies.

Agriculture shock

Numerous studies have shown how El Niño negatively impacts affected countries’ gross domestic product (GDP), household incomes, and per capita consumption, and if not managed well, could induce high inflation resulting from raised food prices.

For the Philippines, our agriculture sector will bear one of the biggest shocks that severe droughts can bring. Not many will remember the El Niño of 1997-1998 when the amount of rain in the country fell to half of historical levels, inducing droughts in two-thirds of farmlands. The dryness was so bad that almost 10,000 hectares of natural forests caught fire and were destroyed.

During the last El Niño seven years ago, average rainfall in Luzon decreased by 14 percent, 21 percent in the Visayas, and 35 percent in Mindanao. An estimated $325 million in crops were damaged, and put in peril the lives of tens of thousands of affected farming families.

While agriculture’s contribution to GDP has dropped to barely nine percent over the years, its relevance to the whole economy is still substantial, especially when one takes into consideration downstream agricultural processing, input production, and agriculture-related trading and transporting. More importantly, agriculture employs almost a quarter of the country’s workforce.

Anticipating the worse

Having in place an early response system has been recommended to help cushion the impact of income losses. With the help of international aid programs, early interventions to prepare for the worst consist of training the government’s national and local agriculture technicians on disaster preparedness and climate change adaptation.

Other major initiatives are cash-for-work, food distribution, public information, water system improvements, and seeds and fertilizer distribution. The distribution of certified seeds for rice, corn, and vegetables in the past have allowed farm families to re-start livelihood opportunities after months of living in uncertain conditions.

During the last El Niño, RAIN was able to successfully stabilize food prices and food supplies nationwide by supporting crop production in unaffected or mildly affected regions. Together with the distribution of food stamps and the removal of rice import quotas, reports showed a substantial reduction in economic losses.

The President had called for the reactivation of the El Niño Task Force two months ago, which should give the team enough lead time to prepare the country for the worst. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) warned that the worst of El Niño would likely be towards the end of the year until the second quarter of 2024.

Room for improvement

Among the areas that the Task Force could improve on are in the faster, more systematic delivery of cash aid. A review of how the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) could quickly make available funds to affected rural and urban households is in order, similar to what happened three years ago when the pandemic lockdowns were ordered.

Redirecting allotted funds for other climate-related activities and budgets should likewise be reviewed, which should give the government more flexibility in adjusting aid distribution where and when best needed.

The United Nations has already warned of global supply and price pressures on rice should droughts badly affect major rice-producing countries. Being partially dependent on rice importation, the Philippines is at risk of disruptions that could lead to rising prices.

The Task Force, likewise, needs, to improve weather forecasting systems and make these accessible to farmers. Having technology play a larger role for our agriculture sector has been a challenge that has been endlessly talked about, but has remained just talk.

Once again, although likely too late, the Philippines needs to improve on its water management system. Not only does this mean better irrigation infrastructure and system for areas that are likely more prone to droughts, but also to stabilize water supplies to urban areas that are most often affected by lowered water levels.

Additionally, a committed and all-encompassing food security program is needed that would put in place sustainable researches on drought- and flood-resistant crop varieties, a network of farmer-friendly grain and food storage systems, and many others.

The latest inflation numbers have just come in, and even if it has dropped to 5.4 percent last month, the average is still high at 7.2 percent. The last thing we need is a new pressure point in the coming months.

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