Forecasts and predictions
I love reading up on forecasts, be it on the economy or industry. Not all forecasts came true. Forecasts are guesswork supported by data and stats at the core of making business. It is an oxymoron for business leaders in their forthcoming yearly strategic meeting to say: “Let’s make sure we come up with an accurate forecast or projections.
Our good friend Google search says “forecast” is defined as “a prophecy, estimate, or prediction of a future happening or condition.” And it has been said that “Business forecasting exists to make astrology look good.”
Take a look at this collection of forecasts (and complaints) from the 50s:1
1. “I’ll tell you one thing. If things keep going as they are, it will be impossible to buy a week’s groceries for $20.”
2. “Have you seen the new cars coming out next year? It won’t be long when $5,000 will only buy a used one.”
3. “When I started driving, who would have thought gas would someday cost 50 cents a gallon. Guess we’d be better off leaving the car in the garage.”
4. “Kids today are impossible. Those duck tail hair cuts make it impossible to stay groomed. Next thing you know, boys will be wearing their hair as long as the girls.
5. “I’m afraid to send my kids to the movies anymore. Ever since they let Clark Gable get by with saying ‘damn’ in ‘Gone with the Wind,’ it seems every movie has a ‘hell’ or ‘damn’ in it.”
6. “Also, it won’t be long until couples sleep in the same bed in the movies. What is this world coming to?”
7. “I read the other day that some scientist thinks it’s possible to put a man on the moon by the end of the century. They even have some fellows they call astronauts preparing for it down in Texas.”
Today I watch a lot of Netflix movies and series at home. And following the thoughts of my mentor and friend Krish Dhanam, he confirms what I have been observing. Here are his words aptly applied to the conditions of the workplace leaders should heed. Krish Dhanam says:
The future shown in movies and media is both dystopian and imaginative. On the one hand, depictions of diabolical destruction and despair, and on the other, the glitter and shimmer of alternative realities. The curious mind of the human experience oscillates between darkness and light like a puppet’s response to the marionette’s commands. In the halls of corporations and departments of team building, the barriers to motivating the staff are constantly challenged by whether the individual believes the future is dystopian or there is hope.
The word epidemic is now used in business enterprises to address the “group think” that has infected sanity and rationale. Managers and coaches constantly try to find new solutions to the same problems. Unfortunately, the advent of social media and the basement keyboard expert has failed to assist in this growing epidemic.
No longer can leaders use phrases like “hard work pays” and “the early bird gets the worm.” Catering to the lowest common denominator and lowering expectations has never worked in any society or civilization and is the ruin of many organizations that are afraid to use words like “excellence.”
There is an easy way to investigate and explore the prime motivators that guide and govern everyone on your team’s habits and eventual behaviors. The following discovery questions assist progress:
1. Looking at the future, do you think we can use technology effectively?
2. In the end, do you see progress or regress?
3. Is capitalism:
a. Good
b. Bad
c. Good and bad
d. Evil
(Many Generation Z people have a lot to say about this issue.)
4. Is an enterprise supposed to make a profit?
5. If there is a limit on profit, who should set the limit?
6. Should personal risk for innovation be rewarded?
7. Do you believe that the company must win?
8. Do you feel that the customer should win?
9. Do you think you should win?
These questions and answers will become the new model of motivation as the boundaries between corporate and social responsibility don’t blur because of commitment but are erased because of envy.
Krish’s observations should guide us with the training programs we are designing for our workforce in a post-pandemic world. When you watch cable TV news and business shows, there will still be a lot of predictions and forecasts, but we need to learn from the Romanian French playwright who says: “You can only predict things after they have happened.”
(Francis Kong runs his highly acclaimed Level Up Leadership 2.0 Master Class Online this August 17-19. For inquiries and reservations, contact April at +63928-559-1798 or and for more information, visit www.levelupleadership.ph)
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