Bad news for coffee lovers: Lean harvest may lead to higher coffee prices

MANILA, Philippines — Bernardo Sotelo Jr. is the head barista for Masa Bakehouse, a well-known café in San Juan, La Union. He says that rising costs for coffee beans could force the shop to consider increasing drink prices.

“This will still depend on the stocks, but we are planning to raise prices because the cost of coffee beans is getting higher. Once our supplier increases the price, we will also do the same for our drinks,” he told The STAR.

Sotelo said the café has already adjusted its sourcing strategy to manage rising costs.

Masa Bakehouse typically uses a blend of local and imported beans sourced from Sultan Kudarat and Indonesia.

“We were using single-origin coffee from Brazil before, but prices increased, so we shifted to a more affordable bean blend. But once stocks run low and we have to return to single-origin coffee, prices will really increase,” he said.

According to the Philippine Coffee Board Inc. (PCBI), coffee lovers may soon have to pay more for their favorite brew as lower domestic production and rising costs weigh on the country’s coffee industry.

PCBI spokesperson Ceasario Kapunan said that coffee prices may increase due to a lower projected output of local beans and the higher costs of shipping coffee products to the country.

He noted that imported Brazilian coffee beans currently cost around P650 per kilo, while Arabica beans are priced between P700 and P750 per kilo.

On the other hand, coffee beans from Benguet can fetch from P750 to as high as P900 per kilo.

“There are big chains that buy coffee in bulk, and they can control certain market prices. When I say coffee (prices) will increase, I’m referring more to the small mom-and-pop shops,” he said, without providing a specific price estimate.

“It’s always a balance between the quality of the product, how much it is and what the consumers are willing to pay for,” he added.

Kapunan said the ongoing harvest season has so far yielded lower volumes.

The PCBI forecasts that the country’s coffee production may be unlikely to reach 30,000 metric tons (MT) this year, amid the combined effects of El Niño and higher input costs.

PCBI chairperson Pacita Juan noted that rising global temperatures have prompted coffee varieties to be planted in much higher altitudes.

The country’s coffee bean production reached 35,650 MT in 2025, this marked an 11.5 percent increase from 31,980 MT the previous year, according to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

Leaving an even more bitter taste for consumers, lower domestic production could also prompt many cafés to reformulate their coffee blends, according to Kapunan.

He noted that most café owners typically use a mix of local and Brazilian coffee beans, however Brazilian beans have become more expensive and increasingly difficult to import.

“Brazil beans are now expensive and not available. It has been difficult to bring in Brazilian beans due to the lack of available stocks, even from the big traders. We’re trying to look for local beans,” Kapunan said.

He stresses that local beans remain a more costly option for most café operators.

“The problem with local beans is that they are also expensive, even if we want to support local farmers,” he said.

The Philippines remains reliant on imported coffee to meet growing domestic demand, as local production only meets about 40 percent.

Kapunan warned that traders and buyers with greater financial resources may try to stockpile available beans, potentially leaving smaller buyers and those purchasing on a per-order basis with limited supply.