Duterte’s economic opening to China and Russia need not threaten our US ties

XIAN CITY, China — Last Sept. 26, when President Rody Duterte announced his bold path to pursue a truly independent foreign policy of opening alliances — especially more economic ties with the world’s second largest economy, China, and the world’s energy superpower, Russia — that day also marked the start of a two-day international conference on the $4 trillion trans-continental economic development plan of 60 countries called the “One Belt, One Road” or “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) in Xian City, Shaanxi province, northwest China. Xian is the starting point of the famous ancient “Silk Road” linking Asia to the Middle East and Europe via trade.

In President Duterte’s bid to normalize ties with China, I urge him to negotiate new infrastructure projects like modern railways or seaports, also possible increased quotas for tourism from, and increased agriculture exports, to China. I recommend that Duterte gain for the Philippines the past tourism quota and agriculture export concessions China once gave to Taiwan under former President Ma Jing-jeou, since economic ties there are now declining with problematic diplomatic ties under new Taiwan President Tsai Ying Wen. For the Philippines, this is an opportunity. Infrastructure is critical to our economic momentum.

Recently, I heard that Jin Liqun, president of the newly launched $100 billion Asian Infrastructure International Bank (AIIB), would visit Manila. On Aug. 30, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that his country Canada is applying to become North America’s first member of the China-led AIIB of which Australia, France, Germany and South Korea are already among the 57 founding members.

I disagree with alarmists who think Duterte’s more balanced and independent foreign policy will signal the end or diminution of our important, historic and longstanding ties with former colonizer the United States. At the Belt and Road Initiative conference in Xian, I was invited to be one of the 100 speakers. Seated beside me were Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) fellow Jonathan E. Hillman and Philipp Fleischmann of Germany’s economically important newspaper, Handelsblatt. One of the best speakers was US investment banker Dr. Robert Lawrence Kuhn.

An independent foreign policy is beneficial economically and it is ultimately pro-Philippines, not anti- or pro- any particular power. Such an independent foreign policy was espoused by our foremost nationalists such as the late Senate President Jovito Salonga, Senator Claro M. Recto, Senator Lorenzo Tañada, Senator Jose Diokno as well as by Asian statesmen Mahathir of Malaysia and Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore.

Israel, South Korea, and our Asean neighbors all have good ties with the US, China, Russia.

Duterte’s normalizing our traditionally good ties with China and Russia need not and should not mean that our ties with the US will be left to flounder. Let us not forget, even at the height of verbal tussles between Mahathir and the west on human rights and economic issues or Lee Kuan Yew versus the western media over human rights complaints (Lee even sued top US newspapers), Malaysia and Singapore still continued good diplomatic and economic ties with the US.

Duterte is wise in pursuing an independent foreign policy and not a zero-sum game mindset when it comes to diplomacy. Just look at US strategic allies Israel and South Korea: Israeli and South Korean economic and diplomatic ties with both China and Russia are high-level and excellent.

Even our ASEAN competitors (for tourism and foreign investments) Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore have balanced, equidistant and good ties with all three “superpowers” US, China and Russia, benefiting from all instead of getting entangled in their strategic rivalries.

Philippines should seek  economic gains from $4 trillion Belt & Road Initiative

Duterte’s bold and visionary diplomacy reform shows impeccable timing, as China’s “Belt and Ropad Initiative” is now being promoted. CLSA — the top French investment banking and brokerage group of Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia, with its multi-awarded Philippine research team led by the brilliant Alfred Dy — said: “A new economic paradigm emerges. At the heart of ‘One Belt, One Road’ lies the creation of an economic land belt that includes countries on the original Silk Road through Central Asia, West Asia, the Middle East and Europe, as well as a maritime road that links China’s port facilities with the African coast, pushing up through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean.”

Can we in the Philippines seize this golden opportunity to be part of this China-proposed and multilateral “One Belt, One Road” plan, not only to boost economic links with China and Russia, but with South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Africa and Asia, like we did centuries ago with Manila acting as an important entry point for the Galleon Trade between the fabled emporiums of China and the silver currencies of Latin America and Spain?

CLSA said: “Key to One Belt, One Road’s success is the development of an unblocked road and rail network between China and Europe. The plan involves more than 60 countries, representing a third of the world’s total economy and more than half the global population.”

Stanford-trained analyst Dr. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group in the US, said the strategic dimension of the “One Belt, One Road” is very important for global stability. Bremmer said: “You are talking about China going out and creating (economic) supply chains that it will be eager to protect. It won’t be ‘not my problem’ anymore. The Chinese leadership will be much more in support of stability. The world absolutely welcomes this and needs it.”

Jason Eugene Subler of Reuters said at the BRI conference in Xian City: “Why is this Belt and Road initiative important now? Some countries in the world want to turn inward, while this move (to promote trade and opening markets) is in the opposite direction. We see it as a very interesting initiative.”

American investment banker Dr. Robert Kuhn, who I had invited to the Philippines, said at the BRI conference in Xian: “Today, I know many people think that the most important event in the world is the Trump-Clinton presidential debate which is going on now. However, looking back in 50 years or 100 years, I believe this is a more important event than the debate because (this BRI international conference of think tank analysts, business people and media) pushes forward an important initiative that is the direction of the future.”

Let us in the Philippines support pragmatic President Duterte’s new independent foreign policy of boosting economic alliances and normalizing our longstanding diplomatic ties with China, Russia, even Iran, Cuba and other countries, while we also do our share to help the Philippines promote our mutually beneficial economic alliances with our traditional allies too, like the United States, South Korea, Spain, Japan, our ASEAN neighbors, Taiwan and others.

Let us build a better, brighter and bold economic future based on a win-win vision of cooperation, optimism and global competitiveness, not based on a zero-sum game mindset.

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